"The outcome of these elections is testimony to just how many Americans have turned away from the establishment in disappointment. What Donald Trump has to do now is reunite diverging social currents. This will be no walk in the park. Until Trump's plan to govern emerges, we should brace for a longer period of uncertainty. I am expecting Trump to opt for an expansive fiscal policy designed to provide economic stimulus, all the while leaning towards a protectionist trade policy, with the associated negative consequences affecting the entire global economy.
Although the President-elect is likely to put a stop to TTIP, we can only hope that sooner or later, Trump will attempt to strengthen integration between EU and U.S. markets.
However, it is imperative that Trump reawakens the American dream and helps his country become, once again, the land of opportunity. To make this a reality, he would do well to modernize infrastructure, narrow the widening prosperity gap, take steps to promote social equality and give all Americans fair access to education.
If Trump goes down this road, he could succeed in bridging the divide brought about by this election campaign, unprecedented in its brutality.
It would also be right to bring disappointed Americans who feel they've been left behind back into the mainstream, reuniting them with their country and its fundamental values. The fact that Trump remains a bit of a mystery in terms of foreign policy only serves to increase uncertainty."
“If Donald Trump were to move quickly and work with Congress to implement the pro-growth parts of his agenda, the United States and global economies would benefit from higher infrastructure investments, corporate tax reform and the reduction of excessive regulation. Equally important is for him to refrain from implementing measures that risk stagflation and unsettling financial instability, such as the imposition of large trade tariffs, the dismantling of NAFTA, and attacks on the Federal Reserve’s policy independence."
- MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, Allianz Chief Economist
“This situation is similar to Brexit. Capital markets are nervous and the first reactions have been sharp because of the surprising outcome of the U.S. elections. But volatility seems to be calming down as the dust settles. The longer-term consequences will depend on the collaboration between the new President and the two houses of Congress. Allianz is well-positioned to handle whatever the future brings. There is no need for immediate changes in investment approaches - neither for us, nor for our customers.”
- ANDREAS GRUBER, Allianz Group Chief Investment Officer
“Beyond the initial shock, markets will wait to watch whether Trump tones down his protectionist and nationalist rhetoric, whom he appoints to key posts and how he gets on with the Congress. Key parts of Trump’s election manifesto contrast sharply with traditional Republican positions, such as support for free trade, balanced budgets and immigration reforms. With a view to the 2018 mid-term elections, Republican members of Congress cannot afford to alienate Trump supporters by blocking his every move. But neither will they allow him to ride roughshod over established conservative values. Since Trump’s room for maneuver will be limited, he will initially focus on undoing the policies of the Obama administration, mainly those passed through executive orders. Regulatory uncertainty will be the immediate result.”
- MICHAEL HEISE, Allianz Chief Economist