European equity markets advanced significantly in 2019. The EURO STOXX 50 was 24.8% higher than at the beginning of the year. The course drivers identified were the defusing of the political crises in Italy and Great Britain and the turnaround back to a very expansionary monetary policy led by the US Federal Reserve. The partial agreement in the trade dispute between China and the USA gave further impetus.

In line with the overall market, insurance stocks posted strong gains, as seen on the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance (+ 24.4%). The Allianz share performed similarly well with a plus of 24.7% to a closing price of 218.40 euros. Including the dividend of 9.00 euros, there is an increase of 30.3%.

The Allianz share was also an attractive investment in the long term. Over the past five years, there has been an average increase in value of 14.7%.

European stock markets suffered substantial losses in 2018. This can be seen at the EURO STOXX 50, which was 14.3% lower at the end of the year. On the one hand, concerns about Brexit and the Italian budget policy weighed on the overall sentiment. On the other hand, trade conflicts had an increasingly negative impact on company earnings.

For the European insurance sector, losses were lower than for the market as a whole. The STOXX Europe 600 Insurance declined by 10.1%. As in the previous three years, the Allianz share outperformed the insurance index, although it was 8.5% lighter at a year-end price of EUR 175.14. Including the dividend of 8.00 euros, the loss in value reduces to 4.7%. In the longer term, the overall balance remains positive: in the 5-year comparison, the average annual increase in value was 10.9%.

The European stock markets reported significant growth in 2017 as can be seen at the EURO STOXX’s 6.5 % increase. The central banks’ ongoing loose monetary policy, the outcome of the French presidential elections and the accelerated economic growth also spurred this development.

Insurance stocks developed in line with the broader market as the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance advanced 6.9%. The Allianz share outperformed its peers again last year and finished at 191.50 euros, a plus of 22.0%. Provided the dividend of 7.60 euros was reinvested in Allianz stock, the total return was even 27.3%. The share price performance reflects both the strong business development and our disciplined capital management.

Also in the long run Allianz share was an attractive investment. On a 5-year view, the average total return per annum reached 17.9%.

2016 proved to be a turbulent year for the stock market. After picking up the pace on the home straight, European stock markets reported a slight increase as the year drew to a close, as indicated by the EURO STOXX 50 (+0.7%). This comes after a period of what was, in some cases, a surprising change of course, for instance a turn brought about by the Brits' decision to leave the European Union or the outcome of the presidential elections in the US, with the latter to blame for the upswing on the stock markets in recent weeks.

Following double-digit growth reported by the European insurance stocks in the previous year, STOXX Europe 600 Insurance lost 5.6% in value in 2016. Falling interest rates and a continuous drop in investment returns put considerable pressure on the industry.

While Allianz' shares did outperform the insurance index, as was also the case in the previous year, the year-end share price equivalent to 157 euros represents a slight decrease of 4.0% compared to the same value at the end of 2015. Assuming dividend reinvestment in Allianz stock, this results in positive performance for the fifth time in a row, producing a yield of 1.0%. In other words, the overall balance remains positive, even in the long term: the average annual value increase came in at 21.8% in a five-year comparison.

Following a year of turbulent developments in share prices, European stock markets reported a slight increase as the year drew to a close. Back in spring, stock markets set new records, driven mainly by the expansionary monetary policy of the European Central Bank, as well as a weaker Euro. It was then, however, that a change occurred in the fundamental data, as the Euro embarked on a recovery course and the Greek crisis flared up again. Moreover, there were growing concerns about a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy. In circumstances like these, a 19.1% increase in the value of Allianz shares to euro163.55 is substantial, outperforming the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance sector index (+14.0%) and the EURO STOXX 50 cross-sector index (+3.8%). Provided the dividend was reinvested in Allianz shares, investments in the company would have seen an increase of 24.6%. This year’s gain constitutes a double-digit rise in value for the fourth time in a row. Not only is this a reflection of favorable business developments, it is also testament to the positive reaction to an investor event, in which our Renewal Agenda was introduced in detail. Following the publication of the 2015 results on February 19, 2016, 63% of analysts issued a “buy” recommendation for Allianz shares – with an average price target of euro 174.You can find the current analyst recommendations and profit forecasts here.

A rising share price in 2015 lends further credibility to the appeal of a long-term investment in Allianz shares. Investors who have had our shares in their portfolios for five years and opted to reinvest their dividends achieved an average annual performance of 18.1% over this period of time. Over the last ten years the corresponding gain came to 6.7%.

Despite the European Central Bank’s expansive monetary policy creating favorable conditions for stock markets in Europe, market appreciation in the region was modest, something that can be traced back to geopolitical crises and the Eurozone’s disappointing economic development. With these conditions in mind, the performance of Allianz’s share price was pleasing, rising by 5.4% to euro 137.35. Provided the dividend was reinvested in Allianz shares, investments in the company would have seen a double-digit value increase for the third time in a row, namely +10.0% in this reporting year. This was stimulated by the strong performance of our business and the positive response to our new dividend policy. However, it was dampened by concerns over the potential ramifications of continually low interest rates and in particular the future performance of our asset manager PIMCO. As a result, the gains made by our shares fell short of those made by the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance (+9.8%). They nonetheless significantly outclassed the value increase of cross-sector indices such as the EURO STOXX 50 (+1.2%). Following the publication of the 2014 results on February 26, 2015, 49% of analysts issued a “buy” recommendation for Allianz shares – with an average price target of euro 152. You can find the current analyst recommendations and profit forecasts at www.allianz.com/analystrecommendations.

The price gains made in 2014 also underpinned the appeal of a long-term investment in Allianz shares. Investors who have kept our shares in their portfolios for five years and opted to reinvest their dividends in Allianz shares achieved an average annual performance of 14.7% over this period of time. Over the last ten years the corresponding gain amounted to 7.5%.

After a lacklustre start to the year 2013, European share prices started to fall in the spring, prompted by the financial crisis in Cyprus and the difficult political situation in Italy. As these economies started to heal, and with markets expecting central banks to stick to their expansionary monetary policies, share prices started to pick up considerably – before coming to an abrupt stop in June. This was triggered by hints made by the Federal Reserve Bank that it might start scaling down its bond purchase program before the end of 2013. Investors reacted by pulling considerable amounts of money out of the stock and bond markets - particularly from emerging markets. After further comments by the Federal Reserve Bank then suggested that an end to – or a restriction of – bond purchases was not looming on the horizon after all, share prices rallied during the second half of the year.

The gains made by Allianz shares in the previous year continued in a dynamic fashion in 2013, climbing by 24.4% to euro 130.35. Assuming that the dividend was reinvested in Allianz shares, total shareholder return amounted to 29.1%. This rising share price reflects the company’s encouraging business development. The increase of our share price, however, was somewhat less than the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance (+28.9%) as market fears intensified during the course of the year that rising interest rates in the United States would slow down growth of our asset manager PIMCO. Allianz shares did, however, clearly outperform cross-industry indices like the EURO STOXX 50 (+17.9%).

Following the publication of the 2013 results, 59% of analysts issued a “buy” recommendation for Allianz shares - with an average price target of euro 140.

After a solid start to the year, market sentiment turned negative. This continued until the summer and was linked with the Greek sovereign debt crisis, growing concerns about the Spanish economy and fears that the Eurozone could disintegrate. It was only when the European Central Bank announced, in late July, that it would do everything in its power to safeguard the Euro that the turnaround started. Since then, confidence has risen and investors have returned to Europe’s stock exchanges. This has benefited the German stock market in particular, with the DAX gaining 29.1%, while the European EURO STOXX 50 index reported a more moderate increase of 13.8%.

Allianz shares gained 41.8%, the highest increase in value in 15 years, closing the year at € 104.80. In this respect, Allianz shares outperformed all the major benchmark indices, including the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance, which gained 32.9% – i.e. 8.9 percentage points less than Allianz shares did. Our shares were also well ahead of cross-sector indices like the DAX (+29.1%) or the EURO STOXX 50 (+13.8%). Assuming that the dividend was reinvested in Allianz shares, total shareholder return amounted to 49.8%. Our outstanding share price result was not only due to the easing of the European sovereign debt crisis but also due to our strong business performance. Following the publication of our 2012 results, 74% of analysts recommended buying Allianz shares – with an average price target of euro 116.

The European sovereign debt crisis continued in 2011, causing increasing uncertainty on the markets in the course of the year. As a result, volatility on global stock markets increased considerably and put additional pressure on share prices in general. Until April 2011, solid company earnings appeared to compensate for concerns about the ongoing debt crisis, with some markets recording double-digit gains. However, the tide turned in the second half of the year and European equity markets dropped sharply as worries grew that the debt crisis could not be contained within the E.U.'s periphery.

The low interest rate environment following the sovereign debt crisis persisted, which continued to have a negative impact on financial institution results and related outlook for the near term. Insurers also continue to be impacted due to the guarantees provided in many of their products. Given the continuing global deleveraging, the markets are expecting low interest rates to continue and industry returns to remain at modest levels, which is also being reflected in share price developments.

For the year, the EURO STOXX 50 was down 17.1% and the DAX fell by 14.7%. Within the financial services sector, although all sectors were down for the year, insurance stocks performed relatively better than the banking index. The STOXX Europe 600 Insurance index decreased by 13.7% in 2011 while the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index dropped by 32.5%, reflecting the worsening sentiment around bank stocks in particular. 

Unfortunately, Allianz was not immune from the impacts of the changing sentiment for banks. During August 2011, several European countries - excluding Germany - introduced a temporary ban on short selling of financial stocks. As a consequence, Allianz was one of the few big financial institutions in the Eurozone which could be targeted by short-sellers seeking to benefit as the crisis escalated in the second half of the year.

Allianz share performed much better than the sector average in the first half of the year but fared worse in the second half, despite our strong operational performance throughout. We partially attribute this second half shift to the short selling ban of financial stocks and the sentiment shift as the financial crisis escalated. Consequently, however, Allianz share decreased by 16.9% and closed the year at € 73.91. The overall return of the Allianz share – i.e. performance plus dividend distribution – amounted to minus 13.2%. Nevertheless, after our financial results for 2011 were published, 64% of analysts recommended buying Allianz shares. The overall average target price was € 104.

With news both of a worsening debt crisis and signs of an economic recovery, these two polarizing trends have led to uneven European stock market movements in 2010. While cyclical stocks reacted to signals of economic recovery with a significant upturn, many financial stocks suffered considerable price losses. Caught between these trends, the EURO STOXX 50 closed the year with a negative return of 5.8 %, while the DAX recorded an annual gain of 16.1 % due to the particularly large number of cyclical stocks in this index. These stocks experienced a robust upswing, as the demand for goods and services returned, particularly in Asia. Within the eurozone, only the Finnish stock market outperformed the DAX.

After an increase of 16.2 % to 87.15 euros in 2009, our share price held firm at year-end despite a difficult trading environment for financial stocks in 2010. Very low interest rates impacted our share price negatively, especially over the summer, but Allianz's share performance gained ground during the final quarter when the interest rates rose again. As in 2009, our shares performed slightly better than the sector average. While Allianz's annual performance in 2010 was 2.0 % with a closing price of 88.93 euros, the total return, i.e. performance plus dividend payment, amounted to 7.4 %. The STOXX Europe 600 Insurance performance stood at 1.6 % and its total return at 5.5 %. Thus the Allianz share, as in the previous year, did better than the sectoral average.

 

In the first few months of 2009 there were still concerns about the effects of the global recession. This sentiment put pressure on equity market prices. However, fuelled by hopes that the recession might be short-lived, investors grew more optimistic and the global equity markets registered significant gains. The Euro Stoxx 50 was up by 21.1% compared to previous year and the DAX increased by 23.8 % in 2009.

Insurance stocks were weaker than broad-based indices, as the creditworthiness of some countries was viewed with considerable scepticism in the final quarter. Insurers, as major investors, were hurt by this development. As a result, the STOXX Europe 600 Insurance was up just 12.9%, while the Allianz share price increased by 16.2% to 87.15 euros as it got a significant boost in the last weeks of trading from the release of our third-quarter numbers. The majority of analysts polled by Bloomberg take a positive view of our share. Upon publication of the results for the fiscal year 2009 two thirds of analysts recommended buying the Allianz share. The average target price was 99 euros.

Equity markets suffered heavy losses in 2008. In the previous year, the financial sector was virtually the only sector to disappoint. This year, however, stock prices in all sectors fell dramatically, particularly beginning in the fall, as fears grew that the financial crisis would have a major impact on the real economy. This is reflected in the performance of the Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50 index, which plummeted 44.4% during the year. Insurance stocks were down on average by 47.3%, while the share price of Allianz fell 49.3% to close the year at Euro 75.00 per share. Our share price has bounced back more than 30% in the last weeks of 2008 supported by the news that we had succeeded in accelerating the sale of Dresdner Bank.

Upon publication of the results for the fiscal year 2008 almost three quarters of analysts recommended to buy the Allianz share, one sixth was neutral and only one in ten advised to sell.