The Football World Cup 2026 will be the largest tournament in football (soccer) history and a structural departure from previous editions, expanding from 32 to 48 teams and from 64 to 104 matches across 16 host cities in the US, Canada and Mexico.
The Iran war marked the first major oil shock that did not trigger a broad emerging markets sell-off. Markets repriced countries based on strengths and weaknesses rather than the traditional EM–DM divide.
Financial fundamentals remain the primary drivers of credit risk. Across more than 7,400 companies and 280,000 firm-year observations, profitability (ROA), leverage and size collectively explain the vast majority of variation in credit risk.
Geopolitical resolution is the master assumption. Equity markets are pricing a framework agreement by September, consistent with the prediction market consensus and the pronounced kink in VIX term structure at Q3.
Extreme heat is emerging as a structural economic risk, with Europe highly exposed. Heat stress events have multiplied sevenfold since the 1980s while the average death toll per event has risen fivefold.
The global insurance industry is estimated to have grown by +7.1% to EUR6.9trn in 2025, adding EUR456bn to the global premium pool. Although growth moderated from the exceptional +9.4% recorded in 2024, it remained comfortably above the ten year compound average growth rate (CAGR) of +5.6%, confirming that the industry’s growth drivers remain firmly intact. Life insurance remained the largest segment (EUR2,861bn), followed by P&C (EUR2,320bn) and health (EUR1,688bn).
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