Exposure to climate risk is rising sharply but unevenly across hazards and regions. Global warming continues to accelerate, with 2025 the third-warmest year on record, reinforcing warnings that the +1.5°C threshold could be reached as early as 2030.
The Middle East conflict has added a new layer of shocks to an already fragile environment shaped by tariffs, weakening demand and declining consumer confidence.
The Middle East conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a broad-based reassessment of non-payment risks, with country downgrades outweighing upgrades.
The war in the Middle East sets the stage. For the US and Europe, we expect lower growth, higher inflation, stronger fiscal pressure and a challenging situation for central banks.
AI hype deflates amid the capex-monetization debate. Despite strong recent earnings, investor focus has shifted from profitability boost to revenue growth trajectory and cash-flow visibility, particularly given hyperscalers’ elevated capex plans (≈USD575bn, +50% expected in 2026) and weakening sentiment toward software amid risks of AI-driven revenue dilution.
