Political fragility is now a key driver of European sovereign bond risk, particularly ahead of the 2027 elections in France and Italy. Since QE ended, it has significantly increased borrowing costs and could keep bond spreads elevated.
With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiring on 24 July, the switch to Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs will send the US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-era level to 12.4%, up from a May low of 7.7%.
Flood losses are rising rapidly as economic activity continues to concentrate in high-risk areas. Floods are Europe’s most frequent and costliest natural hazard, with total economic losses climbing steadily, to EUR226bn in the first quarter of this century.
As the Middle East conflict de-escalates – despite temporary flare-ups – we expect only a mild slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%, followed by a rebound to +2.9% in 2027, broadly in line with our previous baseline outlook.
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