A 4-6-week disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push average EM inflation higher by +0.8-1.0p with limited recessionary effects – apart from GCC countries.
The energy price shock will delay the Fed’s single rate cut in 2026. Rising energy prices should push US inflation towards +3.6% y/y in April-May, up from +2.8% expected before the Middle East conflict, under the assumption that oil prices remain around 90 USD/bbl on average in Q2.
In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive – albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remains pronounced.
The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a stark reminder of Europe’s unfinished business: achieving energy autonomy. Although Europe’s reliance on Russian gas has improved since 2022, it is merely replacing one dependency with another.
Women have made measurable progress over recent decades in narrowing gender pay gaps and increasing labor-force participation – but structural gaps persist
The US-Israeli strikes on Iran will have implications for energy markets, shipping costs, inflation risks and financial conditions – but everything hinges on how long the conflict lasts.
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