Is there really an ever-widening rural-urban divide in Europe?

In Europe the popular narrative of people in the countryside being left behind, while urban elites benefit from globalization and technological change, is used to explain everything from the Brexit vote to France’s Yellow Vest movement.

Big companies in emerging markets and SMEs in Europe tighten the noose on suppliers

At a global level, the Working Capital Requirement  (WCR) of large companies  - a measure of financial resources that companies consume to cover operating costs and expenses, and run their businesses efficiently – has deteriorated by +1 to 70 days in 2018, back to the highest (worst) level since 2012. 

In the footsteps of Sisyphus: The global economy in 2019-20

Just like Sisyphus rolling a boulder up a mountain, only to see it roll down again upon reaching the top, the global economy seems to have gone back to the 2015-16 limbo after two years of strong growth. We expect +2.7% global growth in 2019 and 2020.

Inventories: Painful destocking in sight for European corporates

European companies have witnessed an unusual accumulation of stocks since mid-2018. In March 2019, the Eurozone’s inventories to new orders ratio, based on the Manufacturing PMI, hit a new peak, the highest level since the crisis of 2012 and higher than anywhere else in the world.

Aging: A fountain of youth for productivity growth

Explanations abound for why almost all markets are plagued by declining productivity growth. But one often overlooked factor is the age structure of the workforce. Aging is usually associated with slower productivity growth but the U.S. experience shows that workers aged 40 to 49 are the most productive cohort. 

Poland corporates to face headwinds

Over the past five years, Poland experienced rapid economic growth of an average annual rate of +4%, driven by strong foreign demand, an investment boom and a markedly strengthening labor market. 

European regulatory changes will make banks less willing to lend to SMEs

Bank financing is currently the most important external source of funding for small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Europe.

European elections: What a fragmented parliament means for the EU's priorities

After the May 2019 European elections, a Grand coalition - spanning the European People's Party, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe and Renaissance is needed to govern for the first time in 40 years. 

New CO2 emission regulations in Europe

The most pressing threat ahead of Europe’s car industry isn’t Brexit or potential U.S. tariffs. It’s the EU’s own regulations for limiting carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions.