Political worries, flatlining growth and an illiberal cycle

In 2019-20, overactive policy makers, especially superdovish central bankers, and a new fiscal impulse (U.S., China and Europe, to a lesser extent) will help avoid a global recession, but flatlining growth – with activity bottoming out in Q1 2020 – will be the norm, reminding us of 2015-16 muddle-through.

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2019

A sad premiere: in 2018, financial assets in industrial and emerging countries declined simultaneously for the first time; even in 2008, at the height of the financial crisis, this was not the case.

2019 Enabling Digitalization Index

Where in the world can digital companies thrive? Discover which country tops our 2019 Enabling Digitalization Index.

The Fed is not in the driving seat any more

The recent gathering of central bankers at the Jackson Hole symposium of August 2019 was the occasion for prominent members of the Fed to confess a sense of powerlessness when confronted with the consequences of the White House’s disruptive economic policy.

CFA Franc turning 75

In 2020, the CFA Franc is turning 75 years old. The currency, used in two African regions , is backed by the French treasury and pegged to the Euro.

To hear the heartbeat of global trade, listen to German exporters

German economic indicators are particularly well-placed as precursors of global trade momentum, thanks to a combination of the economy’s key characteristics. Volumes clearly matter: with a share in global exports of 8%, Germany is the world’s third-largest exporter. 

Is there really an ever-widening rural-urban divide in Europe?

In Europe the popular narrative of people in the countryside being left behind, while urban elites benefit from globalization and technological change, is used to explain everything from the Brexit vote to France’s Yellow Vest movement.

Big companies in emerging markets and SMEs in Europe tighten the noose on suppliers

At a global level, the Working Capital Requirement  (WCR) of large companies  - a measure of financial resources that companies consume to cover operating costs and expenses, and run their businesses efficiently – has deteriorated by +1 to 70 days in 2018, back to the highest (worst) level since 2012. 

In the footsteps of Sisyphus: The global economy in 2019-20

Just like Sisyphus rolling a boulder up a mountain, only to see it roll down again upon reaching the top, the global economy seems to have gone back to the 2015-16 limbo after two years of strong growth. We expect +2.7% global growth in 2019 and 2020.