All eyes on fiscal in the Eurozone

A toxic policy mix in 2024? The Eurozone is heading into a challenging 2024 with both fiscal and monetary policy turning restrictive as real rates turn more limiting and governments tighten their belts.


Germany needs more than a plan

Germany is the only major economy that looks set to contract in 2023, with headwinds such as slowing demand for its exports , lopsided global growth in services over goods, the industry slowdown in the US and China and an inventory correction.


Sector Atlas: Assessing non-payment risk across global sectors

Global GDP growth is projected to decelerate to +2.5% in 2023, as low as in 2019. Advanced economies will likely dodge a full recession but will experience low growth in 2023 and 2024.

A slow landing for China

The Chinese consumer is at the heart of public support measures but rebuilding confidence will take time. 

Is diversification dead?

2022 flipped the script on the traditional 60/40 portfolio split, with inflation and growth dynamics switching the traditionally negative correlation between equities and bonds into a positive one. 

Global boiling: Heatwave may have cost 0.6pp of GDP

An initial ‘back of the envelope’ calculation suggests that the recent heatwave across the United States, Southern Europe, and China may have cost 0.6pp of GDP in 2023. The cost ranges from 0.1pp for France to 1.3pp of GDP for China. 

Critical raw materials – Is Europe ready to go back to the future?

The future will be powered by metals, but fenced in by iron curtains. Metals and critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel are crucial for the green transition, used for everything from electric vehicles to wind turbines. 

US & Eurozone growth defying gravity

The US economy stepped up the pace in Q2 2023, with GDP growing above-trend at +2.4% annualized, driven by soaring business investment. Q3 data continue to show positive signs, including a sharp rise in consumer sentiment and continued solid performance in the labor market. 

Playing with a squared ball: the financial literacy gender gap

There is a persistent financial literacy gender gap. Out of the nine questions we asked to assess the level of financial literacy, the mean number of correct responses from women was 3.7 (median 4), while that of men was 4.5 (median 5).