What to watch I April 11, 2024

The ECB in a pickle, China v. Germany – from complementarity to substitution, and UK trade tricks to reduce Brexit inflation

What to watch I April 05, 2024

Quarterly country and sector risk updates, transatlantic equity markets super trends and sticky services inflation v. the ECB

The cost of pay me later

Corporate financing constraints hit a record high in 2023, mainly driven by the largest jump in payment terms since 2008. Global Working Capital Requirements (WCR) increased for the third consecutive year.


Special effects for growth, inflation is acting up. We expect sluggish economic momentum ahead, with global GDP growing by less than +3% between 2024-25. 

What to watch I March 22, 2024

Chocoflation, third time’s the charm for the EU CMU, no such thing as a free gun and India taps new trade opportunities


The automotive market is expected to normalize this year. On the one hand, we expect car registrations to slow down following a strong rebound in 2023. On the other hand, car manufacturers face reduced pricing power and contracting margins amid intensified competition and an uncertain environment.

What to watch I March 14, 2024

The Fed’s bumpy last mile, it’s Bank of Japan’s time and why the AI rally is a cash-rich version of the dotcom bubble

Trumponomics: the sequel

Whoever wins the White House in November will be confronted with a changing US economy. While the US has remained remarkably resilient despite rising interest rates and global uncertainty, it has become more prone to inflation volatility, given a larger exposure to frequent supply shocks and structural labor shortages.

What to watch I March 07, 2024

93 years to close the gender pay gap; putting the Eurozone’s fiscal genie back in the bottle and the winners and losers of interest income