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Low for longer oil prices: Who is at risk?

The negative growth impact is increasing with the time oil prices will remain below 45 USD/bbl In particular, oil-exporting economies are likely to suffer with Ecuador and Colombia expected to lose more than -1pp of real GDP growth for a fall in oil prices of 10 USD/bbl. Mexico, Russia and the UAE are expected to lose more than -0.5pp. The impact from lower oil prices for Saudi Arabia remains more contained, at -0.2pp for oil prices falling by 10 USD/bbl given that the positive impact on growth from higher export volumes and inventories will largely counterbalance negative effects from reduced incomes and some fiscal austerity.

Women live longer – but men catch up

Women have a significantly longer life expectancy than men – but the lead has shrunk from 6.8 years to 4.8 years in the last forty years. Lifestyle changes are responsible for this: while men are becoming more health-conscious and avoid risks, women seem to be moving in the opposite direction. This development can be observed in all rich countries: The men are catching up.

Covid-19 to cost USD320Bn of trade losses every quarter

After the U.S.-China trade feud slashed global trade growth to its slowest pace since 2009 last year (+1.2% in volume terms), we expect the Covid-19 outbreak to act as a major trade barrier in 2020.

U.S. primary elections: Super Tuesday, and the winner is…

No matter who wins the Democrat nomination , or even the general election in November, it is certain that U.S. national debt will continue to grow

Federal Reserve: Tylenol® monetary policy

 

The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by half a percentage point in an emergency move designed to bolster the U.S. economy amid risks posed by the Covid-19 outbreak.

 

U.S.: Housing to remain strong

 

Solid fundamentals will continue to drive housing in 2020.  The housing market, which had been lagging through the first half of 2019, has enjoyed a recent rebound. 

 

In or out? Measuring the Euro break-up risk

The “Allianz Euro Fragility Index” captures the systemic tail risk of a Eurozone breakup.

Agrifood: New risks looming ahead

Major insolvencies are on the rise in the global agrifood industry. At first glance, the global agrifood industry appears to be performing well, helped by the growing global population, especially in Asia.

Turkey: Risk of a sharp exchange rate correction in 2020

As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Turkey disregarded rising inflation and once again cut its key policy one-week repo rate today, by 50bp to 10.75%. 

Is Germany a “stranded” economy?

After four consecutive years of strong economic growth above the potential rate, the high-flying German economy experienced a sharp deceleration in momentum in 2018. The combination of some key characteristics of Europe’s largest economy proved highly unfavorable in an environment of slowing global momentum and elevated political uncertainty.