Warsh's double dilemma: when the Middle East rewrites the Fed's playbook

The energy price shock will delay the Fed’s single rate cut in 2026. Rising energy prices should push US inflation towards +3.6% y/y in April-May, up from +2.8% expected before the Middle East conflict, under the assumption that oil prices remain around 90 USD/bbl on average in Q2. 

Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025: The Middle-Resilience Trap

In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive – albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remains pronounced. 

The second energy shock: Why Europe still isn’t energy secure

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a stark reminder of Europe’s unfinished business: achieving energy autonomy. Although Europe’s reliance on Russian gas has improved since 2022, it is merely replacing one dependency with another. 

Closing the gender income gap: from paycheck to pension

Women have made measurable progress over recent decades in narrowing gender pay gaps and increasing labor-force participation – but structural gaps persist

Conflict in the Middle East: Implications for markets and macro

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran will have implications for energy markets, shipping costs, inflation risks and financial conditions – but everything hinges on how long the conflict lasts.

Mining for the future: Addressing liabilities and unlocking sustainable transition opportunities

A twin transition is driving a surge in mineral demand as decarbonization and digitalization are reshaping the industrial base simultaneously. 

Variable geometry for European trade: Building resilience and diversification

In line with the European Commission’s competitiveness agenda, trade policy needs to be reframed as an instrument of economic security and geopolitical leverage.

Schroedinger’s tariffs

The US Supreme Court dismantled the most cost-effective tariff instrument, but not the new tariff regime overall. 

Private equity in transition: from distribution drought to selective recovery

Private equity is at a critical inflection point. Exit activity rebounded strongly in 2025, with global deal value reaching USD905bn. 

Eurobonds – A window of opportunity for a strategic necessity

Capital flows are shifting to Europe and European debt is emerging as a transitory safe asset.