Economic Insight: Italy Election Watch: Limited downside, limited upside

Will Italy turn Eurosceptic in 2018? In Italy’s upcoming parliamentary election in spring 2018 half of the electorate is likely to cast their vote for a Eurosceptic political party.

Seven Economic Misconceptions about France and Germany

The two biggest economies in Europe have been the subject of various wrong analyses and common-knowledge truisms. This report sets out to refute seven such misconceptions. These are: a higher French birth means potential growth is higher than in Germany; labor productivity is higher in France than in Germany because of France’s higher number of unemployed; Fiscal austerity is stronger in Germany than in France; France lost the competitiveness battle to Germany; German SMEs are performing better than French ones; France is Germany's main trading partner; and Because it grows faster, Germany should invest more than France.

Economic Insight: Population growth in Germany

Demographers from the German and EU statistical offices have revised their population projections for Germany, painting a more optimistic picture about the country’s population for coming decades.

Economic Insight: Euro area - Inflation target will be achieved if unemployment continues to fall

The labor market in the euro area has been improving since 2013. Although the number of people in work exceeds 2008 levels, the number of unemployed is still over 3 million higher. 

Economic Insight: Three questions on the global economic cycle

Where are we in the global economic cycle? Since the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, the global economy has been stuck in a post-crisis malaise.

Economic Insight: Germany - Lasting economic success cannot be taken for granted

On 24 September, this year of European elections will reach its next climax: the election of a new German government. These elections are taking place against the backdrop of a pronounced boom in the German economy.

Economic Insight: ECB - a secret tapering recipe?

The ECB has to make a move towards normalization. Soft tapering – though not our own core scenario – is an option. It consists of stopping or reducing reinvestments of principal payments before reducing Quantitative Easing (QE). Why choose different sequencing from the Fed?

Economic Insight: A breeze of growth

Global growth is accelerating (at last), yet not all engines are in sync. A disappointing U.S., reassuring Europe and stabilizing Emerging markets create good – not great – momentum. We forecast GDP to grow +2.9% in 2017 and 2018, unchanged from our last scenario. It will be the seventh consecutive year below 3%.

Economic Insight: Trump's pro-growth agenda: Can it still happen?

After eight years of expansion, the US economy has limited spare resources. Hence policy changes that can create room for higher growth in the medium term are needed.