Economic Insight: Banking deregulation in the US to boost growth - and risk

Deregulation has been firmly on Trump’s agenda, with a recent bill easing rules for banks by watering down prudential standards and undoing some elements of the so-called Dodd-Frank law. However, while greater financial liberalization can contribute to higher long term growth, it can also encourage greater risk taking. 

Economic Insight: Italy: Stress is here to stay

88 days after the Italian parliamentary election on March 4, and after one failed attempt to form a governing coalition that triggered an episode of exceptional financial market stress, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega parties sealed their governing alliance.

Economic Insight: Oil - Beyond geopolitics?

Oil price strength in Q2 18 has been driven by geopolitics, in particular heightened tension in Syria and in the Middle East, and subsequently the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.

Economic Insight: German growth outlook remains favorable

The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the final quarter of 2017, when real GDP expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

Economic Insight: Resilient European economy

In 2017, the global economy registered the strongest growth since 2011. In recent months, however, uncertainty about future economic developments has increased significantly, partly due to the protectionist US trade policy and geopolitical risks.

Economic Insight: Fiscal policy in the US: Ghosts of the past?

In the past five months, President Trump signed into law the TCJA (Tax Cuts and Job Act, on December 22, 2017) and the 2018 Bi-Partisan Budget Act (on February 9, 2018), which was recently completed with the FY2018 Omnibus Appropriation Bill (on March 23, 2018). They correspond to three pivotal fiscal policy blocks, each having a series of positive effects on the US economy.

Economic Insight: Inflation risks

Moderate, and more in the US than the Eurozone.

Economic Insight: Consequences of Us tax reform for Germany

We estimate the positive effect of the tax cuts on real economic growth in the US at more than half a percentage point in 2018 and between a quarter and half a percentage point in 2019. Additional economic effects could result from the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, which leaves room for considerable additional government expenditure.

10 Ideas On How France and Germany Could Strengthen Europe

Between a pro-European government in France and early discussions of a Große Koalition in Germany, there is political momentum on both sides of the Rhine for a stronger Europe. Building on the principle of subsidiarity, and focusing on cost-effective institutional breakthroughs, France and Germany could drive the European project further with ten initiatives in five reform areas.