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Jul 31, 2017

Economic Insight: Will the Chinese consumer save the World?

The US represents the largest final consumer market with nearly 30% of global household consumption. As it contemplates more protectionist policies, the world may have to find itself a substitute.

Jul 20, 2017

Economic Insight: Big bang?

There has been a noticeable increase in destabilizing political events in recent years. This begs the question whether we are dealing with an unfortunate accumulation of political accidents, or whether there is something systemic going on.

Jul 14, 2017

Economic Insight: Politics and markets will reconnect

War in Ukraine and Syria, rising tensions over North Korea, high policy uncertainty related to Brexit and the Trump presidency, a super-election cycle in Europe …

Jan 26, 2017

Why the world economy could surprise on the upside in 2017 despite all the uncertainty

Last year, the global economy proved fairly resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. Neither concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy nor major political surprises – including the result of the Brexit referendum in June and the outcome of the US presidential elections in November – managed to knock the global economy off its moderate growth path.

22.12.2016

Outlook 2017: Optimism despite multiple risks

Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.

Nov 09, 2016

America has voted

Donald Trump’s support for extreme positions, his provocations and his frequent U-turns imply heightened risk and volatility during the next administration.

27.10.2016

Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

On December 4th, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform package, the most important element of which is a move to a unicameral parliamentary system.

24.06.2016

Britain votes to leave: A leap in the dark

This is not a good day for Europe. Brexit is not an event, it is a process. The repercussions of yesterday’s vote will be felt not only in the UK but across Europe for years to come.

16.06.2016

Brexit fears are hitting the markets

With a week to go to Britain’s EU referendum, the Leave camp has again taken the lead in some opinion polls.

39 releases in total