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Brexit – UK votes leave

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The decision has been made, the UK electorate voted to leave the European Union. Allianz Chief Investment Officer Andreas Gruber and Allianz Chief Economist Michael Heise talk about the consequences of this decision for the global markets and the economy.


Allianz SE
Munich, Jun 24, 2016

Andreas Gruber, Allianz Chief Investment Officer

Allianz-Andreas Gruber, Allianz Chief Investment Officer

Andreas Gruber, Allianz Chief Investment Officer

How do you envisage global markets changing after the UK's vote to leave?

In the medium- and long-term we expect bilateral agreements between the UK and the EU in order to achieve a continued prosperous collaboration. Most negative scenarios are well reflected in market prices already. Nevertheless, the vote brings with it some short-term uncertainty, and for this reason investors are assuming higher risk premiums and hence lower prices. We believe market disruptions are short-term.
What are the implications for Allianz investment strategies?

Allianz Investment Management builds its strategies on its liabilities, coupling obligations towards clients with a careful management of risks and returns. Consequently, our portfolios are not materially affected by short-term market volatility.
What does it mean for Allianz insurance customers?

Due to our long-term investment approach we are not expecting any negative impacts on Allianz’ investments. Our customers benefit from a diversified investment portfolio as well as global investment expertise that have proven to yield superior returns and resilience – as also illustrated in our strong reserves and solvency. We continuously enhance our portfolios, for instance by investing in renewable energy, infrastructure and private debt.

Michael Heise, Allianz Chief Economist

Allianz-Michael Heise, Allianz Chief Economist

Michael Heise, Allianz Chief Economist

“The vote by the majority of Britons to leave the EU is to be respected as a democratic decision, but it does pose a severe test for the United Kingdom and the whole of the European Union with considerable economic risks. Politicians and investors now need to display prudence and foresight. Knee-jerk reactions should be avoided at all costs. The EU should persevere with its projects such as the completion of the Single Market.
Leaving the EU is not an event but a process and many questions regarding the next steps and the new relationship between the UK and the EU remain at this point. As a result, political and economic uncertainty will persist for some time to come. This will keep volatility on financial markets elevated and dampen economic sentiment in both Britain and the rest of Europe. However, by acting in a constructive and collaborative manner, British and European policymakers can do much to reduce any disruptions to trade and capital flows. Even if the European project from now on will move forward without Britain, the UK is bound to remain a key ally of the European Union warranting close political, economic and financial ties.
Although the repercussions of the vote are likely to weigh on the British economy in the years ahead, there are no grounds for excessive gloom about the European economy. The recovery in the eurozone is now sufficiently robust to survive this episode.”

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