The so-called “mini-deal” between the U.S. and China is not a game-changer for the global economy. The U.S. average tariff could reach around 8.5% by year-end (taking into account a 10% tariff on EU car imports and the 15 December round of tariffs on Chinese goods). We remain in our intermediate “Trade Feud” scenario; policy volatility is the new norm in trade negotiations, and it goes beyond tariffs (ban lists of companies).