To gauge current global trade momentum, we built a proprietary model based on German economic indicators. Our results suggest that after broadly stabilizing in spring 2019, the trade recession continued in Q2 2019 (-0.8% q/q). With key surveys and indicators for the German economy continuing their downward trend – the latest reading of German new manufacturing orders at -8.6% y/y showed the sharpest annual decline in almost a decade – and in spite of clear idiosyncrasies (homegrown car sector troubles etc.), it looks like global trade is unlikely to recover in the next quarter.