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Dr. Lorenz Weimann

Allianz SE
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Economic Insight: Italy: Stress is here to stay

Jun 14, 2018 | Allianz SE

88 days after the Italian parliamentary election on March 4, and after one failed attempt to form a governing coalition that triggered an episode of exceptional financial market stress, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega parties sealed their governing alliance.


Economic Insight: Oil - Beyond geopolitics?

Jun 14, 2018 | Allianz SE

Oil price strength in Q2 18 has been driven by geopolitics, in particular heightened tension in Syria and in the Middle East, and subsequently the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal.


Economic Insight: German growth outlook remains favorable

Jun 08, 2018 | Allianz SE

The German economy got off to a weak start in 2018, with growth halving to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year compared with the final quarter of 2017, when real GDP expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.


Economic Insight: Resilient European economy

May 29, 2018 | Allianz SE

In 2017, the global economy registered the strongest growth since 2011. In recent months, however, uncertainty about future economic developments has increased significantly, partly due to the protectionist US trade policy and geopolitical risks.


Economic Insight: Fiscal policy in the US: Ghosts of the past?

Apr 18, 2018 | Allianz SE

In the past five months, President Trump signed into law the TCJA (Tax Cuts and Job Act, on December 22, 2017) and the 2018 Bi-Partisan Budget Act (on February 9, 2018), which was recently completed with the FY2018 Omnibus Appropriation Bill (on March 23, 2018). They correspond to three pivotal fiscal policy blocks, each having a series of positive effects on the US economy.


Economic Insight: Inflation risks

Mar 23, 2018 | Allianz SE

Moderate, and more in the US than the Eurozone.


Economic Insight: Consequences of US tax reform for Germany

Feb 22, 2018 | Allianz SE

We estimate the positive effect of the tax cuts on real economic growth in the US at more than half a percentage point in 2018 and between a quarter and half a percentage point in 2019. Additional economic effects could result from the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018, which leaves room for considerable additional government expenditure.


Economic Insight: 10 Ideas on how France and Germany could strengthen Europe

Jan 16, 2018 | Allianz SE

Between a pro-European government in France and early discussions of a Große Koalition in Germany, there is political momentum on both sides of the Rhine for a stronger Europe. Building on the principle of subsidiarity, and focusing on cost-effective institutional breakthroughs, France and Germany could drive the European project further with ten initiatives in five reform areas.


Economic Insight: Italy Election: Limited downside, limited upside

Dec 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Will Italy turn Eurosceptic in 2018? In Italy’s upcoming parliamentary election in spring 2018 half of the electorate is likely to cast their vote for a Eurosceptic political party.


Economic Insight: Seven Economic Misconceptions about France and Germany

Dec 08, 2017 | Allianz SE

The two biggest economies in Europe have been the subject of various wrong analyses and common-knowledge truisms. This report sets out to refute seven such misconceptions. These are: a higher French birth means potential growth is higher than in Germany; labor productivity is higher in France than in Germany because of France’s higher number of unemployed; Fiscal austerity is stronger in Germany than in France; France lost the competitiveness battle to Germany; German SMEs are performing better than French ones; France is Germany's main trading partner; and Because it grows faster, Germany should invest more than France.


Economic Insight: Population growth in Germany

Dec 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

Demographers from the German and EU statistical offices have revised their population projections for Germany, painting a more optimistic picture about the country’s population for coming decades.


Economic Insight: Euro area - Inflation target will be achieved if unemployment continues to fall

Nov 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

The labor market in the euro area has been improving since 2013. Although the number of people in work exceeds 2008 levels, the number of unemployed is still over 3 million higher. 


Economic Insight: Three questions on the economic cycle

Oct 18, 2017 | Allianz SE

Where are we in the global economic cycle? Since the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis, the global economy has been stuck in a post-crisis malaise.


Economic Insight: Germany - Lasting economic success cannot be taken for granted

Sep 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

On 24 September, this year of European elections will reach its next climax: the election of a new German government. These elections are taking place against the backdrop of a pronounced boom in the German economy.


Economic Insight: A secret tapering recipe?

Sep 06, 2017 | Allianz SE

The ECB has to make a move towards normalization. Soft tapering – though not our own core scenario – is an option. It consists of stopping or reducing reinvestments of principal payments before reducing Quantitative Easing (QE). Why choose different sequencing from the Fed?


Economic Insight: A breeze of growth

Aug 11, 2017 | Allianz SE

Global growth is accelerating (at last), yet not all engines are in sync. A disappointing U.S., reassuring Europe and stabilizing Emerging markets create good – not great – momentum. We forecast GDP to grow +2.9% in 2017 and 2018, unchanged from our last scenario. It will be the seventh consecutive year below 3%.


Economic Insight: Trump's pro-growth agenda: Can it still happen?

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

After eight years of expansion, the US economy has limited spare resources. Hence policy changes that can create room for higher growth in the medium term are needed.


Economic Insight: Will the Chinese consumer save the World?

Jul 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The US represents the largest final consumer market with nearly 30% of global household consumption. As it contemplates more protectionist policies, the world may have to find itself a substitute.


Economic Insight: Big bang?

Jul 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

There has been a noticeable increase in destabilizing political events in recent years. This begs the question whether we are dealing with an unfortunate accumulation of political accidents, or whether there is something systemic going on.


Economic Insight: Politics and markets will reconnect

Jul 14, 2017 | Allianz SE

War in Ukraine and Syria, rising tensions over North Korea, high policy uncertainty related to Brexit and the Trump presidency, a super-election cycle in Europe …


Why the world economy could surprise on the upside despite all the uncertainty

Jan 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

Last year, the global economy proved fairly resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. Neither concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy nor major political surprises – including the result of the Brexit referendum in June and the outcome of the US presidential elections in November – managed to knock the global economy off its moderate growth path.


Outlook 2017: Optimism despite multiple risks

Dec 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.


America has voted

Nov 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

Donald Trump’s support for extreme positions, his provocations and his frequent U-turns imply heightened risk and volatility during the next administration.


Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

On December 4th, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform package, the most important element of which is a move to a unicameral parliamentary system.


Britain votes to leave: A leap in the dark

Jun 24, 2016 | Allianz SE

This is not a good day for Europe. Brexit is not an event, it is a process. The repercussions of yesterday’s vote will be felt not only in the UK but across Europe for years to come.


Brexit fears are hitting the markets

Jun 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

With a week to go to Britain’s EU referendum, the Leave camp has again taken the lead in some opinion polls.


Eurozone: Maintaining the reform momentum remains a must

May 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy is moving in the right direction, gradually tackling economic imbalances and becoming more resilient in the process.


Gradual yuan depreciation is not bad news

Mar 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

One of the main headaches that has been plaguing financial markets in recent months is the possibility of further devaluation of the Chinese yuan. It would make Chinese exports even more competitive and is therefore seen as a risk that reinforces deflationary pressures on world markets.


The US economy can cope with a monetary policy turnaround

Mar 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

Since last summer, concerns about the strength of the global recovery have been rising again. While the focus was initially on emerging markets, in particular China, more recent worries have centered around the US.