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Dr. Lorenz Weimann

Allianz SE
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Economic Insight: Germany - Lasting economic success cannot be taken for granted

Sep 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

On 24 September, this year of European elections will reach its next climax: the election of a new German government. These elections are taking place against the backdrop of a pronounced boom in the German economy.

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Economic Insight: A secret tapering recipe?

Sep 06, 2017 | Allianz SE

The ECB has to make a move towards normalization. Soft tapering – though not our own core scenario – is an option. It consists of stopping or reducing reinvestments of principal payments before reducing Quantitative Easing (QE). Why choose different sequencing from the Fed?

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Economic Insight: A breeze of growth

Aug 11, 2017 | Allianz SE

Global growth is accelerating (at last), yet not all engines are in sync. A disappointing U.S., reassuring Europe and stabilizing Emerging markets create good – not great – momentum. We forecast GDP to grow +2.9% in 2017 and 2018, unchanged from our last scenario. It will be the seventh consecutive year below 3%.

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Economic Insight: Trump's pro-growth agenda: Can it still happen?

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

After eight years of expansion, the US economy has limited spare resources. Hence policy changes that can create room for higher growth in the medium term are needed.

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Economic Insight: Will the Chinese consumer save the World?

Jul 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The US represents the largest final consumer market with nearly 30% of global household consumption. As it contemplates more protectionist policies, the world may have to find itself a substitute.

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Economic Insight: Big bang?

Jul 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

There has been a noticeable increase in destabilizing political events in recent years. This begs the question whether we are dealing with an unfortunate accumulation of political accidents, or whether there is something systemic going on.

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Economic Insight: Politics and markets will reconnect

Jul 14, 2017 | Allianz SE

War in Ukraine and Syria, rising tensions over North Korea, high policy uncertainty related to Brexit and the Trump presidency, a super-election cycle in Europe …

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Why the world economy could surprise on the upside despite all the uncertainty

Jan 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

Last year, the global economy proved fairly resilient in the face of unexpected shocks. Neither concerns about a slowdown in the Chinese economy nor major political surprises – including the result of the Brexit referendum in June and the outcome of the US presidential elections in November – managed to knock the global economy off its moderate growth path.

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Outlook 2017: Optimism despite multiple risks

Dec 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands, the move of the US President-elect Donald Trump into the Oval Office, the start of Brexit negotiations – given the elevated uncertainty hanging over political and economic developments next year, there is really only one thing that is certain: 2017 will be an eventful and interesting year.

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America has voted

Nov 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

Donald Trump’s support for extreme positions, his provocations and his frequent U-turns imply heightened risk and volatility during the next administration.

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Italy's referendum: Short-term outlook and long-term implications

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

On December 4th, Italians will vote on a constitutional reform package, the most important element of which is a move to a unicameral parliamentary system.

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Britain votes to leave: A leap in the dark

Jun 24, 2016 | Allianz SE

This is not a good day for Europe. Brexit is not an event, it is a process. The repercussions of yesterday’s vote will be felt not only in the UK but across Europe for years to come.

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Brexit fears are hitting the markets

Jun 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

With a week to go to Britain’s EU referendum, the Leave camp has again taken the lead in some opinion polls.

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Eurozone: Maintaining the reform momentum remains a must

May 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy is moving in the right direction, gradually tackling economic imbalances and becoming more resilient in the process.

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Gradual yuan depreciation is not bad news

Mar 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

One of the main headaches that has been plaguing financial markets in recent months is the possibility of further devaluation of the Chinese yuan. It would make Chinese exports even more competitive and is therefore seen as a risk that reinforces deflationary pressures on world markets.

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The US economy can cope with a monetary policy turnaround

Mar 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

Since last summer, concerns about the strength of the global recovery have been rising again. While the focus was initially on emerging markets, in particular China, more recent worries have centered around the US.

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