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IPOs: Turbocharged by private equity

Initial Public Offering (IPO) volumes are set to hit a new record in 2021, offering investors higher return potential than traded equity, albeit with higher risk. But investing in the right IPO depends on more than just geographical location and sector. 

Energy prices & inflation

Could surging energy prices raise inflation expectations and spark a self-fulfilling upward price spiral? Futures markets suggest the risk is limited — for now. Sharply rising energy prices have accelerated headline inflation. After oil, gas and coal prices more than doubled in less than a year, spurred by strong supply-demand imbalances and weather-related factors

China´s great crunch

A mix of temporary and policy-driven crunches, the biggest being real estate, has sparked a sudden slowdown in China, which we expect to continue through Q4 2021 and the beginning of next year. As a result, we cut our GDP growth forecasts to +7.9% in 2021 and +5.2% in 2022.

Energy prices in Europe: (A costly) winter is coming

Pent-up demand, tight supply, green policy and bad timing are the recipe for skyrocketing energy prices, which could take three to six months to cool down. Europe is particularly at risk due to low stocks and its high dependence on natural gas. 

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2021

    2020 was the year of extreme contrasts. Covid-19 destroyed millions of lives and livelihoods and the world economy plunged into its deepest recession since World War II. At the same time, monetary and fiscal policy mobilized unimagined sums to support the economy, markets and people. 

Global Insolvencies: We'll be back

The withdrawal of support measures for companies sets the stage for a gradual normalization of business insolvencies. Our Global Insolvency Index is likely to post a +15% y/y rebound in 2022, after two consecutive years of decline (-6% forecast in 2021 and -12% in 2020). However, even in 2022, business insolvencies would remain below pre-Covid-19 levels in most countries (by -4% on average).

Money supply, saving & hoarding: What you see is not what you get

    The discussion about excess saving could (and should) better distinguish the two components of what it is usually called saving, namely saving proper – money that is spent, but not on consumption -, and hoarding  - money that is not spent at all.

Eurozone: Reflation is not stagflation

When the world’s top central bankers virtually convene at this year’s ECB Annual Forum, the scale and duration of the current surge of inflation will invariably be high on the agenda. But we continue to believe that the current cyclical price pressures are unlikely to morph into a long-lasting trend. 

How to future-proof the German Wirtschaftswunder

Political change is upon Germany, but no major policy overhaul is in the cards. After the elections on 26 September 2021, Chancellor Angela Merkel will be re-placed after 16 years in power. The transition takes place in a highly fragmented political context, which will likely see the first three-party coalition emerge at the federal level and complicate the government-formation process. 

Climate policy: Time for a "blood, toil, tears and sweat" speech

Climate change is the dominant challenge of the 21 st century but combatting it will require more than just huge investments: far-reaching individual behavioral changes are also essential.