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Mar 25, 2026

AI capex cycle: war-proof for now

AI hype deflates amid the capex-monetization debate. Despite strong recent earnings, investor focus has shifted from profitability boost to revenue growth trajectory and cash-flow visibility, particularly given hyperscalers’ elevated capex plans (≈USD575bn, +50% expected in 2026) and weakening sentiment toward software amid risks of AI-driven revenue dilution. 

Mar 23, 2026

Signal without response: Why the EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is at a political and structural inflection point, with allowance prices falling sharply by around -24% in the first two months of 2026. 

Mar 17, 2026

Not all Emerging markets are equal: Hormuz, triple deficits, and the new energy risk premium

A 4-6-week disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push average EM inflation higher by +0.8-1.0p with limited recessionary effects – apart from GCC countries.

Mar 16, 2026

Warsh's double dilemma: when the Middle East rewrites the Fed's playbook

The energy price shock will delay the Fed’s single rate cut in 2026. Rising energy prices should push US inflation towards +3.6% y/y in April-May, up from +2.8% expected before the Middle East conflict, under the assumption that oil prices remain around 90 USD/bbl on average in Q2. 

Mar 11, 2026

Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025: The Middle-Resilience Trap

In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive – albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remains pronounced. 

Mar 10, 2026

The second energy shock: Why Europe still isn’t energy secure

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is a stark reminder of Europe’s unfinished business: achieving energy autonomy. Although Europe’s reliance on Russian gas has improved since 2022, it is merely replacing one dependency with another. 

Mar 05, 2026

Closing the gender income gap: from paycheck to pension

Women have made measurable progress over recent decades in narrowing gender pay gaps and increasing labor-force participation – but structural gaps persist

Mar 03, 2026

Conflict in the Middle East: Implications for markets and macro

The US-Israeli strikes on Iran will have implications for energy markets, shipping costs, inflation risks and financial conditions – but everything hinges on how long the conflict lasts.

Feb 25, 2026

Mining for the future: Addressing liabilities and unlocking sustainable transition opportunities

A twin transition is driving a surge in mineral demand as decarbonization and digitalization are reshaping the industrial base simultaneously. 

Feb 24, 2026

Variable geometry for European trade: Building resilience and diversification

In line with the European Commission’s competitiveness agenda, trade policy needs to be reframed as an instrument of economic security and geopolitical leverage.

603 releases in total