US large-cap banks posted record Q1 2026 earnings, and both earnings growth and asset quality sits well above trend. Yet, investors seem wary about how long the good times can last, for at least four reasons.
An electric tilt boosted by energy volatility. After a bruising 2025, Q1 2026 data reveal a striking reversal. BEV market share hit 19% EU-wide (+4pps vs; Q1 2025) and surged to 28% in France and 23% in Germany.
US and Eurozone labor markets appear to be in good shape, with headline unemployment rates near historic lows. But three strong undercurrents (immigration policy, the energy-price shock and AI) are churning beneath the calm surface.
The Middle East crisis is squeezing airlines’ jet-fuel supplies.Unlike previous oil crises, the main bottleneck lies in refining capacity and product logistics.
The US dollar emerged as the last remaining safe haven standing amid the war in Iran. However, this situation is increasingly conditional and regime-dependent.
Exposure to climate risk is rising sharply but unevenly across hazards and regions. Global warming continues to accelerate, with 2025 the third-warmest year on record, reinforcing warnings that the +1.5°C threshold could be reached as early as 2030.
The Middle East conflict has added a new layer of shocks to an already fragile environment shaped by tariffs, weakening demand and declining consumer confidence.
