All publications

Germany: Strong start to the year, subdued outlook

The German economy’s strong start to the year can largly be attributed to economic impulses coming from the domestic economy. However, positive special effects - including the rather mild winter, catch-up car purchases and expansive fiscal measures supportive of private consumption - probably helped beautify the Q1 result. 

Global insurance market: At a crossroads

According to projections by Allianz Research, the global insurance premium volume last year rose to 3,655 billion euros (excluding health insurance).

Focus Economics Award 2019

The Allianz Research team has won the FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards 2019. The team is proud to be recognized as the most accurate forecaster for the following countries and indicators in 2018: 

 

 

The shape of the U.S. yield curve: A cautionary tale

In March 2019, the spread between the long and short end of the U.S. yield curve entered into negative territory, sparking concerns about an economic downturn ahead. 

Germany: Strong start to the year, but no reason to sound the all-clear

After a brief soft-patch, the German economy has regained a foothold and, with seasonally adjusted GDP growth of 0.4%, enjoyed a strong start to 2019. 

Eurozone: Consumer shelters economy from external woes – for now

After a bit of a dry spell in the second half of 2018, economic momentum has shifted up a gear in the Eurozone in Q1 2019 with GDP growing by 0.4% q/q.

What do Trump's new tariffs mean for the global economy?

On May 5th, President Trump announced plans to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, arguing that current US-China talks are going too slow. On May 10th, the Trump administration announced a hike in the tariff on USD200bn of imports from China  to 25% (from 10% currently).

In line with the economic slowdown, companies reduced payment delays

After hitting a 10-year high in 2017, global average Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), a measure of how long it takes companies to collect cash from customers, fell by -1 day to 65 days in 2018, a sign of caution in line with the economic slowdown. As world GDP growth slows further this year, we expect DSO to reach 64 days in 2019.

Germany: Strong GDP growth in Q1 2019

Seasonally adjusted industrial production rose by 0.5% in March compared with the previous month. The German industrial weakness has thus not yet been overcome, but the situation is at least stabilizing. 

Indian Elections: Policies to boost business

India was the fastest-growing economy among G20 countries in 2018 with +7.4% GDP growth. Over the past five years, active and decisive policy-making (policy mix, structural reforms) has contributed as much as +0.7pp to growth p.a. on average.