Financial Literacy Pays: Smarter Investing Goes Beyond AI

High financial literacy is key to building wealth, yet it remains the exception. Only 17% of respondents in Allianz Research's latest Financial Literacy Report score as highly literate, while one in four score low — largely unchanged from 2023.

Cracking finance: Why the quantum threat could arrive before the reward

Most technologies create value before they create problems, but quantum computing may break that pattern. Imagine two clocks ticking side by side: one measures the time until quantum computers become economically useful, the other the time until they can break the cryptography that underpins the financial system. 

When bonds stop hedging equities: rethinking portfolio diversification

The 60/40 portfolio has quietly stopped working. The risk-adjusted return investors could reasonably expect from the standard balanced portfolio has fallen to roughly a third of its long-run level, from a Sharpe ratio of 0.47 to just 0.14.

The price of political fragility

Political fragility is now a key driver of European sovereign bond risk, particularly ahead of the 2027 elections in France and Italy. Since QE ended, it has significantly increased borrowing costs and could keep bond spreads elevated.

Trade war 3.0: A new, lasting tariff wall

With Section 122's flat 10% tariff expiring on 24 July, the switch to Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs will send the US average import tariff back above 2025's IEEPA-era level to 12.4%, up from a May low of 7.7%. 

Cash at risk: Inventories are driving a new cycle of working capital strain

The global cash conversion cycle (CCC) rose again in 2025 — and it is stuck at a high plateau.

Super El Niño risk: more inflation in Asia, oversupply in Latin America yet little disruption in financial markets

The emerging 2026-27 El Niño has the potential to become the strongest climate event in more than a decade.

Europe under water: The macroeconomic cost of flooding and the economic case for adaptation

Flood losses are rising rapidly as economic activity continues to concentrate in high-risk areas. Floods are Europe’s most frequent and costliest natural hazard, with total economic losses climbing steadily, to EUR226bn in the first quarter of this century. 

Half-Time Outlook 2026-27: AI holds the score, growth slows to +2.5%

As the Middle East conflict de-escalates – despite temporary flare-ups – we expect only a mild slowdown in global growth in 2026 to +2.5%, followed by a rebound to +2.9% in 2027, broadly in line with our previous baseline outlook. 

Credit risk relocated, not removed: Newton’s cradle transmitting risk across BBB, HY, and private credit

US credit looks calm on the surface – spreads tight, headline growth cheerful – but the risk has simply migrated.