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May 10, 2010

Asia – outlook after the crisis

Asia's emerging markets have weathered the most severe global financial and economic crisis witnessed since the Second World War far better than one would have imagined only just over a year ago. And that's not all: Asia was also the first region in the world to experience a considerable recovery in economic activity last year. So it is by no means an exaggeration to say that Asia played a key role in steering the global economy out of the toughest recession in decades. It does actually come as something of a surprise that, of all regions, Asia, – renowned as it is for its heavy reliance on exports – was the first to clamber its way out of recession, while at the same time those countries that happen to be Asia's main export markets had literally collapsed.

Jun 03, 2009

Asia and the global economic crisis: Challenges and opportunities

Asia was hit particularly hard by the financial and economic crisis as booming exports had been the major driver of economic growth in recent years. Between 2004 and 2008 real gross domestic product in the region rose by an average 8% a year, making Asia the most dynamic region in the world by a long way. The heavy reliance on exports resulted in an economic slump in the financial and economic crisis, on a scale last seen in the Asian crisis of 1997/1998. For 2009 we are forecasting fairly low growth of 2.7%

Apr 27, 2009

East Asia: A region to lead the next economic decade

The three largest economies in East Asia – China, Japan, and Korea – are much more closely integrated and are much better prepared for the coming upswing than widely perceived in Europe.

Aug 27, 2008

Turkey: Sturdier than thought

The positive Constitutional Court ruling for the government and the AKP removes considerable uncertainty from the country. The economy will benefit from this. Other challenges remain, e.g. the international capital markets have hit choppy waters in the wake of the subprime crisis in the US. How will Turkey accomplish the balancing act between the tricky domestic political situation and the confidence of international investors upon which it relies given its substantial foreign capital requirements?

Aug 27, 2008

China: Will the lights go out after the Olympics?

For years now China’s economic momentum has been cracking all records. But it is now increasingly being mooted that China could be hit by a sharp slump in growth after the Olympic Games. Is the Chinese economy heading for a hard landing?

Jun 26, 2008

Russia: Beyond the oil boom

Russia‘s economic growth exceeded 8 % in 2007, almost reminiscent of Chinese growth rates. No one, including ourselves, had expected such economic momentum. The economic success is attributable primarily to the surge in energy prices which, albeit in aweaker form, have propelled aggregate demand. But to attribute the booming economy solely to oil and gas would certainly overlook other factors. In Russia‘s major cities, the private service sector is flourishing - not surprisingly, given the country‘s great need to recover lost ground. And, as is currently the case in nearly every emerging market, the construction industry is booming.

Jun 11, 2008

New dawn in Africa

There are growing signs that the economy in Africa is taking off. This is all the more encouraging given the many disappointments in the continent‘s recent economic past. Natural catastrophes, famine, civil wars, corruption and excessive debt threw sub-SaharanAfrica behind other developing regions and prompted international companies to avoid the continent when developing their business strategies. Temporary glimmers of hope, e.g. the adoption by a number of countries of a market economy following the collapse of the Soviet Union, were generally followed by disappointment, with deteriorating external conditions - such as a collapse in commodity prices - frequently standing in the way of an upswing. Is the latest germ of economic recovery likely to experience the same fate? Or do key factors suggest that the sub-Saharan African economy will latch on to the momentum of Asia and Latin America and that emerging markets will develop from the African developing nations? In the course of this study we will weigh up the negative and the positive factors and attempt to derive from them the long-term trends of economic growth.

Nov 23, 2007

China’s long-term economic outlook: The long march to the top

China’s real economic growth will peak in 2007 at 11.5 % but will also remain high in 2008 despite the downturn in the US. There is no sign of a soft landing, much less a hard one, for the economy. But in the longer term China’s economy will also lose momentum.

Aug 01, 2007

Central and eastern European demographics - that shrinking feeling!

Overall populations in CEE countries and especially the working-age population will decline significantly by 2050. Over the coming decades those in work will have to support a sharply rising proportion of retirees. This will be mitigated somewhat by the fact that in CEE countries the old, pay-as-you-go financed pension schemes have been replaced by more modern multi-pillar pension schemes with substantial funded elements. Apart from pension spending, ageing populations also push up costs for health and long-term care, too. On the other hand, the CEE countries have a high growth potential and for the next 25 years this will probably more than offset the adverse effects due to demographic change. But from 2030 a significant drop in the labor pool will have a negative impact on growth potential.

31 releases in total