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Jul 19, 2007

Russia: More than oil and gas

Russia’s economic upswing is gathering momentum and has broadened substan-tially. This comes at a time at which attention is again increasingly focused on the risk of self-isolation and government meddling in Russian economic policy. But in view of Russia’s current rapid economic integration with the rest of the world, as reflected in foreign trade and capital transactions, we believe that such fears are overdone and that Russia’s path to the market economy is irreversible.

Feb 22, 2007

India: Close on China’s heels

India has caught up with Far Eastern growth momentum. For several years now the economy has been recording dynamic and strong growth. There are many factors to suggest that India will remain on a clearly upward growth path in the longer term. The sub-continent enjoys the second highest growth potential in the world, after China. India is on its way to becoming a significant economic power.

Jun 02, 2006

Brazil: Stability and weak growth

In recent weeks Brazil has also been affected by the jitters on international financial markets: yield premiums on Brazilian foreign bonds crept up, the Real slipped by a good 10 % against the US dollar and the Brazilian stock market tumbled.

Apr 11, 2005

Emerging Markets: Are central banks driving up the euro?

Almost three-quarters of global currency reserves are held by central banks in emerging markets and developing countries. In a Working Paper ("Emerging market central banks' investment strategies: Tailwind for the euro?") economists at Dresdner Bank have examined whether these central banks have become a determining factor on the international foreign exchange markets and are now driving up the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar.

Mar 04, 2005

China: Economic scenarios

A hard landing would have grave consequences, both for China itself and for the world economy. However, the likelihood of such a horror scenario is very low. China’s growth is set to ease only moderately to 8 % this year and next.

Jan 03, 2005

End of foreign exchange restrictions in South Africa – is everything hunky-dory?

South Africa’s star is in the ascendant. Its economy is flourishing, its currency has recorded a five-year high, investor confidence is growing and the country is about to see the removal of foreign exchange controls, a relic of the apartheid era.

Dec 15, 2004

Turkey on verge of EU decision

Despite all the progress made in the past two years Turkey remains vulnerable to shocks. Destabilizing factors include weak demand management, the low savings rate, the current account deficit and, despite some recent inroads, the still yawning budget deficit.

Oct 22, 2004

Would a hard landing trigger higher US interest rates?

Fears that the overheated Chinese economy is heading for a hard landing have been doing the rounds for a while now. They have now gripped the financial markets, which are fretting about rising US interest rates as a result. Such fears are unfounded, not least because Chinese financial investments in the USA are simply too small in relation to the overall size of the US capital market.

May 19, 2004

Turkey: Accession negotiations intensify reform pressure on EU

In the debate about Turkey’s entry into the EU foreign policy considerations are usually in the foreground, but the economic consequences for the EU are also significant. Assuming Turkey is granted similar accession terms as the eastern European countries, the cost of Turkish accession would exceed those of the current enlargement round.

31 releases in total