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Dec 18, 2018 | Economic Insight

ECB Preview: Starting Shot for the Great Unwind

Whereas 2018 will be known as the year when the ECB reached the end of its monetary easing path – with the cessation of QE net purchases under which the ECB accumulated a bond portfolio worth €2.6 trillion over the course of close to four years – 2019 will mark the beginning of monetary tightening.

Oct 24, 2018 | Economic Insight

The ECB´s reinvestment policy:Issues and options

The ECB has committed itself to reinvesting the principal from maturing securities purchased under the Asset Purchase Program (APP) since 2014. But with monthly net purchases expected to end after an almost four-year run come January, the reinvestment policy will now take center stage in determining financial conditions in the eurozone until at least September 2019 when we expect the ECB to implement its first timid rate hike. 

Jun 14, 2018

Economic Insight: Italy: Stress is here to stay

88 days after the Italian parliamentary election on March 4, and after one failed attempt to form a governing coalition that triggered an episode of exceptional financial market stress, the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the Lega parties sealed their governing alliance.

May 29, 2018

Economic Insight: Resilient European economy

In 2017, the global economy registered the strongest growth since 2011. In recent months, however, uncertainty about future economic developments has increased significantly, partly due to the protectionist US trade policy and geopolitical risks.

Dec 21, 2017

Economic Insight: Italy Election Watch: Limited downside, limited upside

Will Italy turn Eurosceptic in 2018? In Italy’s upcoming parliamentary election in spring 2018 half of the electorate is likely to cast their vote for a Eurosceptic political party.

Nov 21, 2017

Economic Insight: Euro area - Inflation target will be achieved if unemployment continues to fall

The labor market in the euro area has been improving since 2013. Although the number of people in work exceeds 2008 levels, the number of unemployed is still over 3 million higher. 

Sep 06, 2017

Economic Insight: ECB - a secret tapering recipe?

The ECB has to make a move towards normalization. Soft tapering – though not our own core scenario – is an option. It consists of stopping or reducing reinvestments of principal payments before reducing Quantitative Easing (QE). Why choose different sequencing from the Fed?

May 09, 2016

Eurozone: Maintaining the reform momentum remains a must

The eurozone economy is moving in the right direction, gradually tackling economic imbalances and becoming more resilient in the process.

8 releases in total