New orders at risk, but high backlogs should ensure production and income in the short term

Last update – September 2023
Business environment risk
Political risk
Commercial risk
  • High pricing power since there are few manufacturers capable of engineering and building tailor-made transportation equipment, particularly in aviation (an oligopoly with very few well-recognized players).
  • Lot of growth potential for the transportation sector in general, especially for the rail transportation market, with governments looking to encourage green mobility.
  • In some cases, construction contracts are signed with governments (state-owned transportation companies), which gives greater reliability of repayment.
  • Construction periods for transport equipment tend to be long (several years), allowing companies to anticipate production capacity and forecast income in advance.
  • Very capital-intensive sector as it is necessary to invest both in R&D (design and engineering of state-of-the-art models) and in capex and infrastructure for the construction and assembling of the equipment to be sold.
  • Highly leveraged market. Given the large size of contracts, companies require a high level of disposable working capital over the construction period as in most cases they will be fully paid only on delivery.
  • As steel and aluminum are the main metals used for the manufacturing of trains, airplanes and vessels, profitability is vulnerable to commodity price volatility, though sales are agreed on a fixed-price contract basis.
  • A market that demands high precision, high-quality finished products and safety. Any failure of a structural component, manufacturing defect or accident can have huge negative consequences for both the operator and the manufacturing company.
  • A cyclical sector: sales accelerate in in economic boom periods because transportation companies enlarge their capex, but investments decrease significantly during economic slowdowns.
Contact Allianz Trade
Economic Research Team
Maria Latorre
Allianz Trade