Allianz Research

Volle Kraft voraus:
Global Wealth Report 2025

U.S. & Eurozone corporates: Where is the Fed?

Central banks, allegedly in the front line? As the pandemic brought large swathes of the global economy to a standstill, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started loading their respective policy bazookas. Both central banks’ decisions triggered an extreme market rotation into corporate credit (especially in the high yielding segment). Taking into account that the U.S. corporate credit market is ~2.5x that of the Eurozone, as of today the ECB has intervened with the double firepower compared to the Fed.

 


 

Inflation: Back to the 1970s?

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 shock on inflation has been decidedly deflationary, but in light of the brewing cocktail of post-pandemic economic trends, the probability of an inflationary overshoot has also risen. What would it take for a scenario of persistently high inflation (probability: 15%) to materialize?

U.S. elections - We have a winner: Debt

The U.S. elections will spark a period of high uncertainty and market volatility until the end of the year. It could take one to two months after 03 November to finalize the results due to the record high use of mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic.