Allianz Research

Volle Kraft voraus:
Global Wealth Report 2025

Not all Emerging markets are equal: Hormuz, triple deficits, and the new energy risk premium

A 4-6-week disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push average EM inflation higher by +0.8-1.0p with limited recessionary effects – apart from GCC countries.

Warsh's double dilemma: when the Middle East rewrites the Fed's playbook

The energy price shock will delay the Fed’s single rate cut in 2026. Rising energy prices should push US inflation towards +3.6% y/y in April-May, up from +2.8% expected before the Middle East conflict, under the assumption that oil prices remain around 90 USD/bbl on average in Q2. 

Allianz Social Resilience Index 2025: The Middle-Resilience Trap

In 2025, the Allianz Social Resilience Index (SRI) records a third consecutive – albeit modest – improvement, but underlying divergence remains pronounced.