Allianz Research

Volle Kraft voraus:
Global Wealth Report 2025

Monetary policy: Omicron management & beyond

In their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid signs of higher inflation and rising omicron-related uncertainty. Despite the higher stakes for credible forward guidance, with the possbility of a slightly more hawkish tone, we still expect the overall tightening cycle to be less aggressive than suggested by current market pricing.

Global FX Volatility: Still waters run deep

Global foreign exchange implied volatility has declined to a historically low level, led by advanced economies currencies (notably the EUR and the JPY). Central banks’ liquidity swaps have fostered such a decline by providing USD liquidity in times of stress. The presence of a CNY-factor in non-CNY denominated assets creates “hidden” opportunities as well as “hidden” risks.

Chinese capital markets: the panda in the room

China’s rapid economic development and dominant role in global trade has spurred a rapidly evolving financial system with an increasingly diverse and accessible capital market.