Allianz Research

Volle Kraft voraus:
Global Wealth Report 2025

Economic outlook 2026-27: The Fog of War

The war in the Middle East sets the stage. For the US and Europe, we expect lower growth, higher inflation, stronger fiscal pressure and a challenging situation for central banks.

AI capex cycle: war-proof for now

AI hype deflates amid the capex-monetization debate. Despite strong recent earnings, investor focus has shifted from profitability boost to revenue growth trajectory and cash-flow visibility, particularly given hyperscalers’ elevated capex plans (≈USD575bn, +50% expected in 2026) and weakening sentiment toward software amid risks of AI-driven revenue dilution. 

Signal without response: Why the EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is at a political and structural inflection point, with allowance prices falling sharply by around -24% in the first two months of 2026.