Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew strongly in the third quarter 2017 as well, notching up a seasonally and calendar-adjusted increase of 0.8%. As the Federal Statistical Office has now also revised up the sequential rate for the first quarter 2017 to 0.9% (previously 0.7%), annual average growth in 2017 looks set to come in at 2.3% (previously 2.0%). Adjusted for calendar effects, economic growth this year is poised to reach 2.5%.

Encouragingly, gross fixed investment contributed to growth in the third quarter. According to the Federal Statistical Office, this was mainly thanks to machinery and equipment investment. Net exports also helped to lift growth, with exports increasing faster than imports. German exporters are benefiting palpably from the pickup in the eurozone and the growth in world trade. By contrast, government and private consumption contributed little to growth in the previous quarter, remaining mired at the prior quarter level.

The latest economic data such as the ifo business climate index and industrial capacity utilization clearly indicate that the economy will continue to purr. Given pent-up demand, we believe machinery and equipment investment will make a substantial contribution. This means, so to speak, that the next and probably last stage of the German growth rocket will ignite. For this year we are now penciling in growth of 2.3% and next year growth also looks set to be appreciably above 2%


Gregor Eder

Allianz SE
Phone: +49 69 24431 3358

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