No all-clear for German industry

Good news for German industry. In April 2019, the price-adjusted new order intake in the manufacturing sector was 0.3 % higher than in the previous month (seasonally and calendar-adjusted). In addition, the March figure was corrected slightly upwards to 0.8%. Excluding bulk orders, new orders in the manufacturing sector even recorded a solid plus of 2.1% in April.

However, the new figures are not more than a ray of light. Positive impetus is coming in particular from abroad. New foreign orders rose by 1.1% in April, despite a strong decline from the eurozone (-5.8%). However, the still timid trend reversal in foreign demand could quickly vanish into thin air again in view of the recent intensification in the US-China trade dispute. In addition, there are initial signs that the weakness in the domestic economy is increasingly weighing on German domestic demand. Domestic orders fell again in April (0.8%). Since the beginning of the year, the decline has been around 7%. Overall, we continue to expect German GDP growth to come in at 1% in 2019.

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