The slowdown in major emerging markets practically brought German export growth to a standstill in the third quarter after four strong quarters. It seems likely that this particular negative factor has faded towards the end of the year. Supported by the low euro, we expect exports to regain momentum in the final quarter of the year. The drop in construction and equipment investment seen in the third quarter is also likely to prove short-lived. In conjunction with the ongoing upturn in consumption, we expect fourth-quarter GDP growth to pick up to around 0.4-0.5%. In 2015 as a whole the German economy thus looks set to expand by 1.7%; given the healthy departure point, we are forecasting growth of 2.0% for 2016.