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Dr. Lorenz Weimann

Allianz SE
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China: Foreign trade makes promising start to year

Feb 10, 2017 | Allianz SE

In January 2017, both Chinese exports and imports rose substantially on a year earlier for the first time in more than two years.

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Germany: Slide in production should not be dramatized

Feb 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the steep 3% month-on-month slide in industrial production in December can be partially explained by the constellation of Christmas holidays, it does mean that production in the fourth quarter of 2016 actually fell by 0.1% compared with the third quarter.

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USA: Fed still on hold

Feb 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range at 0.50%-0.75% and continued to signal that rates would be lifted gradually.

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Eurozone: Economy humming at turn of year

Jan 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Unfazed by the heightened global uncertainty the eurozone economy put on a spurt at the end of 2016.

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China: Official growth target 2017: Lower would be better

Jan 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

All told, today’s fourth quarter 2016 economic data contained few surprises. Peering ahead is more interesting.

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ECB: Tapering debate around the corner

Jan 19, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, today’s ECB Council meeting was a non-event. The substantially improved economic data of late and the higher December inflation figure in the eurozone offered no grounds to put the recently extended bond purchasing program up for discussion again.

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Germany: Signs continue to point to upswing

Jan 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the economic front a humming domestic economy was the hallmark of 2016. The external side provided only a limited boost. At 2.5%, German exports expanded more strongly than world trade, which more or less stagnated on average last year.

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Trend in inflation argues for ECB flexibility in both directions

Jan 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

One higher inflation figure is not a tipping point, but the latest numbers (and good purchasing manager indices) show that surprises in every direction are possible.

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Ifo test shows bullish business conditions

Dec 19, 2016 | Allianz SE

Business conditions improved again in December for the fourth month running and are now the rosiest for more than four years.

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ECB: No tapering in sight

Dec 08, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB is sticking with its loose monetary policy: Although the monthly bond purchases are to be reduced to EUR 60bn from April, they are set to continue until at least the end of 2017.

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Italy: Reform standstill sine die

Dec 05, 2016 | Allianz SE

After the defeat in the constitutional referendum Italy’s Prime Minister has tendered his resignation. In the short term heightened political uncertainty is likely to weigh on financial markets and economic sentiment.

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Italy: Ahead of the vote

Dec 02, 2016 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the Italian constitutional referendum remains open. Polling has already stopped, with a third of voters still undecided.

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Inflation and exchange rate: Favorable constellation for tapering

Nov 30, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s inflation numbers are moving slowly in the right direction. Although next week the ECB is likely to extend its monthly bond purchases of EUR 80bn for a few months more, we see plenty of reasons for it to simultaneously announce a reduction in the purchase volume for the time thereafter.

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Eurozone: PMIs show economic momentum accelerating

Nov 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy moved up a gear in the final quarter of 2016.

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German economic forecast 2017: Upswing with weak points

Nov 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.

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USA: Fed eyes December rate hike

Nov 03, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Fed steered clear of changing key rates in the nervous pre-election environment. But in line with the signals it had already provided in September, it stresses that an increase in the federal funds rate is imminent.

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Eurozone: Moderate upswing continues

Oct 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy remains on a moderate growth path. The Brexit vote has so far had little impact on growth momentum.

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Post-Brexit vote economic honeymoon will soon come to an end

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

The UK economy slowed down in the third quarter of 2016, but the GDP reading – the first official indicator of how the economy as a whole has fared following the Brexit-vote – contained little of the doom and gloom that many had expected following Britain’s decision to exit the EU

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Ifo test flags buoyant growth at year-end

Oct 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

Following the jump seen in September, the Ifo business climate improved again in October. The steep rise in business expectations in industry in the last two months is particularly striking.

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Eurozone: Good PMIs bolster case for tapering from April

Oct 24, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy is ticking over nicely. In early December the ECB will probably outline its tapering plans more specifically. Hopefully it will start to taper in April 2017, which would anyway mean an extension of the bond purchasing program beyond March of next year.

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ECB should announce taperiing

Oct 17, 2016 | Allianz SE

This Thursday the ECB is likely to keep its cards close to its chest as to whether it will maintain its bond purchasing program or start tapering from the second quarter 2017.

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Germany: Economic engine still purring nicely

Oct 07, 2016 | Allianz SE

On the heels of July’s disappointing numbers, the steep rise in industrial production by a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in August shows that the German economy remains on a growth path.

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Eurozone: Slight slowdown in late summer

Sep 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for the eurozone suggest that the economy has lost a little momentum but remains on an upward path. Next year the eurozone economy is likely to move back up a gear.

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USA: Cautious monetary policy normalization

Sep 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remained on hold again at yesterday’s meeting, it is sending very clear signals that it is moving towards a rate hike before the end of this year.

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Emerging Markets: Turnaround in capital inflows is not sustainable

Sep 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

For several months now emerging markets have been enjoying increased popularity again among portfolio investors. However, this development is not being driven by fundamental improvements in the emerging markets themselves but reflects more an at least temporary rebound in risk appetite on the international financial markets.

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China: Indicators signal slight acceleration in growth

Sep 13, 2016 | Allianz SE

August economic data point to a slight pickup in economic momentum in the third quarter. The booming property market played a key role.

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ECB should quash expectations of further monetary policy easing

Sep 06, 2016 | Allianz SE

Further monetary policy easing is more likely to have negative effects than boost the economy.

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Eurozone: Higher inflation around the corner, no turnaround on the labor market

Aug 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB should take a relaxed view of today’s inflation figures. Inflation rates in the eurozone are set to pick up markedly very soon, pushing inflation expectations back up with them.

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USA: Illumination from Jackson Hole?

Aug 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

The US Fed has persistently indicated that the normalization of monetary policy would be gradual. This strategy takes account of the risks of reacting too late or too early.

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Ifo test: Industrial sentiment tumbles

Aug 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

The deterioration in German industrial sentiment shown by the ifo test is a warning signal.

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Eurozone: No damper on sentiment

Aug 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

The robust PMIs suggest that economic momentum in the eurozone remains solid. We do not see any need for the ECB to loosen the monetary reins any further.

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Economy recovery remains on track

Aug 12, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although the euro area economy slowed in the second quarter of the year, the economic recovery remains intact.

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BoE delivers comprehensive bundle of measures

Aug 04, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Bank of England (BoE) has launched a sweeping bundle of monetary policy measures to cushion the negative impact of the Brexit decision on the UK economy.

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Eurozone: Recovery continues

Jul 29, 2016 | Allianz SE

On the right track: The eurozone economy is not exactly humming, but it is growing. Unemployment is falling, not rapidly but steadily.

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Ifo test: Only muted reaction to Brexit-vote

Jul 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

According to the July Ifo test, business expectations in German industry clouded over only slightly despite the Brexit-vote.

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Eurozone sentiment barometer positive despite Brexit-vote

Jul 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the eurozone confirm both our picture of an ongoing upward trend in the economy as well as the wait-and-see stance of the ECB.

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China: Government leans against growth slowdown

Jul 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

Not least thanks to the economic policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth, the Chinese economy in the second quarter of this year was able to maintain the pace of expansion seen in the preceding quarter.

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USA: June sentiment indicators surprisingly good

Jul 07, 2016 | Allianz SE

US growth looks to have firmed up in the second quarter. The robust assessment of production and new orders in the surprisingly good survey-based indicators for June suggest that the economy is poised to make a buoyant start to the second half of the year.

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USA: Fed not yet budging from two rate hikes this year

Jun 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

At its fourth meeting this year the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee remained on hold.

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Quieter on the ECB front

May 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s price and labor market data confirm our picture: inflation and the economy are heading in the right direction, thus arguing against any further loosening of monetary policy.

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Ifo test suggests solid economic development in the spring

May 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

According to the Ifo institute, the rise in business expectations in German industry and trade recorded this spring for the third time in a row sends out a positive signal for the German economy.

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Greece: Eurozone deal unlocks news bailout money

May 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

After months of negotiations, eurozone finance ministers agreed to unlock a further EUR 10.3 billion in bailout money for Greece.

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Eurozone: PMIs nothing to write home about, but firm

May 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although economic momentum in the second quarter is likely to slow somewhat compared with the start of the year, the eurozone economy remains well on the road to recovery.

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Germany: Domestic demand humming

May 13, 2016 | Allianz SE

At 0.7% in the first quarter of 2016, the German economy recorded the strongest growth since the first quarter of 2014.

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Eurozone: Economy makes buoyant start to year

Apr 29, 2016 | Allianz SE

Despite elevated global uncertainty at the turn of the year, the eurozone economy got off to a buoyant start.

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USA: How does the Fed view the risks?

Apr 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

At this week’s meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee will probably leave the target range for the key rate at 0.25%-0.5%.

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Eurozone: Public finances: Stick to the path of reform!

Apr 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

The figures published today on budget deficits and government debt in the EU show that substantial progress has been made on consolidating public finances.

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Eurozone: Negative interest rates should not become the norm

Apr 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

With its negative deposit rate, the ECB has moved into uncharted territory.

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China: Priority back on stabilization

Apr 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

The “controlled growth slowdown” continued in the first quarter of 2016.

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Germany: Meager return on savings

Apr 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

The low interest rate environment poses new challenges for investors. At first glance, German savers fared pretty well.

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Germany: Growth accelerates at start of year

Apr 06, 2016 | Allianz SE

Having slipped marginally in the second half of 2015, industrial production looks set to have expanded appreciably in the first quarter of 2016.

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Eurozone: Gloom lifts

Mar 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Despite the difficult global environment, the eurozone economy remains on the growth track.

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USA: Spring awakening in manufacturing sector

Mar 21, 2016 | Allianz SE

Overall, the plethora of recently published economic data support our view that, following the very subdued performance in the final quarter of 2015, the US economy is getting back into stride.

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Eurozone: Further ECB loosening not the answer

Mar 09, 2016 | Allianz SE

The fact that eurozone inflation has fallen below zero and is likely to stay there for a while is no reason to step up monetary policy crisis mode yet further.

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Germany: Industry roars into new year

Mar 08, 2016 | Allianz SE

The steep 3.2% jump in industrial production in January over December shows that concerns about the economy fueled mainly by the slide in oil prices are overdone.

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UK: And now for the referendum

Feb 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

At the EU summit last week, British Premier David Cameron reached an agreement with his EU peers on the renegotiated terms of Britain’s EU membership. The deal paved the way for the promised in-out referendum, which will now take place on June 23.

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Eurozone: Recovery continues

Feb 12, 2016 | Allianz SE

The economic recovery in the eurozone continued in the final quarter of 2015

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Labor market still humming

Feb 02, 2016 | Allianz SE

The labor market remains in extremely good shape at the beginning of 2016.

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Mini-inflation should leave ECB cold

Jan 29, 2016 | Allianz SE

Inflationary pressures in the eurozone increased slightly in January, but the annual inflation rate remains mired close to zero.

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USA: An incongruous end to 2015

Jan 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

At the end of this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the initial estimate for GDP in the final quarter 2015. The general expectation is that growth will be disappointing.

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China: Slowdown no cause for panic

Jan 19, 2016 | Allianz SE

As expected, growth in the Chinese economy slowed further in 2015.

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Oil price slide signals no need for further ECB action

Jan 18, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although eurozone inflation rates are set to remain mired near zero in the coming months, further ECB loosening is not warranted.

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Germany: Domestic economy picking up further

Jan 14, 2016 | Allianz SE

As expected, the German economy notched up growth of 1.7% last year.

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Allianz Chief Economist named Forecaster of the Year

Dec 21, 2015 | Allianz SE

The German national daily Süddeutsche Zeitung has named Michael Heise Forecaster of the Year for what is now the third time since 2002.

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USA: End of zero rates

Dec 14, 2015 | Allianz SE

In all likelihood the US Federal Reserve will abandon its wait-and-see stance this week and end the zero interest rate policy after seven years.

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Eurozone: New ECB measures over the top

Dec 03, 2015 | Allianz SE

In our view the inflation picture does not justify the ECB’s renewed escalation of crisis mode.

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Russia: Sanctions against Turkey intensify inflationary pressure

Dec 02, 2015 | Allianz SE

The economic sanctions imposed on Turkey in the context of the shooting down of a Russian fighter jet will hit not only the Turkish, but also the Russian economy.

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Germany: Time to rejig savings

Dec 01, 2015 | Allianz SE

The low interest rate environment poses new challenges for investors. At first glance, German savers have been coping pretty well.

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Labor market in markedly good shape

Dec 01, 2015 | Allianz SE

The labor market in Germany is shaping up extremely well this fall. The seasonally adjusted jobless total fell by 13,000 in November on the heels of a 6,000 drop in October.

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Ifo signals pickup in economy

Nov 24, 2015 | Allianz SE

According to the November Ifo test, German business expectations rose for the third consecutive month.

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Eurozone: No major impact on yields or exchange rate from new ECB measures

Nov 19, 2015 | Allianz SE

Additional ECB loosening in December is already factored into current yield and exchange rate levels, potential surprises are likely to be limited.

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Eurozone: Moderate upturn continues

Nov 13, 2015 | Allianz SE Consumption remains the eurozone’s growth engine, whereas net exports are likely to have been a drag on growth given the slowing global economy. More...

USA: Falling unemployment points to December rate hike

Nov 10, 2015 | Allianz SE

The jobs report for October surprised on the upside. It not only showed a return to more dynamic jobs growth compared with the preceding two months, hourly wages also picked up markedly to stand 2.5% up on a year earlier.

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Germany: Industrial production dents overall growth

Nov 06, 2015 | Allianz SE

The decline in industrial orders for the third month running and in production for the second month in a row, together with simultaneous positive domestic figures, suggests that Germany’s export engine is sputtering due to the global slowdown.

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Revision of interest rates forecast: Low oil prices lead to low inflation, leads to low bond yields

Oct 27, 2015 | Allianz SE

Bond yields in Germany, the benchmark for the eurozone, are once again on the decline.

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China: Importance of services sector growing further

Oct 19, 2015 | Allianz SE

By and large, the Q3 2015 growth figures published today by China’s National Bureau of Statistics popped few surprises.

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Eurozone: PMIs argue against further ECB loosening

Sep 23, 2015 | Allianz SE The purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) published today do not indicate that the global economy is taking its toll. More...

USA: Fed remains on hold

Sep 17, 2015 | Allianz SE

Although in recent months the Federal Reserve had been preparing markets for a rate hike, it has decided to remain on hold.

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USA: Labor market picture backs rate hike

Sep 10, 2015 | Allianz SE

The US Fed meets next week to discuss its monetary policy and present updated economic projections.

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Eurozone: Low inflation rate no reason to expand the QE purchase program

Aug 31, 2015 | Allianz SE Eurozone inflation remains seemingly unfazed by the ECB's quantitative easing policy. More...

Ifo test: Robust economy

Aug 25, 2015 | Allianz SE

The fact that the Ifo business climate index for industry and trade has risen for the second month running shows that the German economy is on a stable upward trajectory.

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China will not drag down world economy

Aug 21, 2015 | Allianz SE

Investor panic reflects fears of a general slowdown in the world economy.

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Japan: Industrial production set for comeback

Aug 21, 2015 | Allianz SE

Economic development came as a disappointment in the second quarter, not least due to weak exports.

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Eurozone: Solid upward trend

Aug 21, 2015 | Allianz SE The purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) published today point towards a continued - albeit unspectacular - economic recovery in the euro area. More...

Slight loss of economic momentum

Aug 14, 2015 | Allianz SE While the eurozone remains on the road to recovery, the economic upswing lost steam in Q2 2015. Particularly in the core EMU countries, economic growth lagged behind expectations. More...

China: Renminbi devaluation - economic repercussions yes, but not a new currency war

Aug 13, 2015 | Allianz SE

On August 11, 2015, the People´s Bank of China took the markets by surprise by fixing the renminbi at 6.2298 CNY versus the US dollar, almost 2% higher than a day earlier.

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Germany: Labor market cooling down

Jul 30, 2015 | Allianz SE

The upswing on the labor market has slowed down markedly in recent months. The seasonally adjusted jobless total has now risen slightly for two months in a row, having previously fallen for eight successive months.

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Grexit not yet averted

Jul 01, 2015 | Allianz SE

The Greek crisis has escalated. By walking away from negotiations and a further bailout, Greece has taken a large step towards Grexit.

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USA: Fed reaffirms gradual normalization of monetary policy

Jun 18, 2015 | Allianz SE

As expected, the Fed has left its target rate for the federal funds rate at 0-0.25%. At the same time it continues to signal that the first rate hikes could take place this year.

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ECB bond purchasing program pushes yields down by 3/4 of a percentage point

Jun 02, 2015 | Allianz SE

According to our estimates, the ECB’s bond purchasing program has pushed German long-term yields down considerably.

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Brazil: Domestic demand tumbles

May 29, 2015 | Allianz SE

The Brazilian economy contracted slightly in the first quarter. An early turn for the better is not in sight.

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Eurozone: Shift in growth drivers

May 21, 2015 | Allianz SE

On the heels of the recent GDP figures, the purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) published today also point to a shift in the growth drivers in the eurozone.

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Eurozone economy: Moving broadly in the right direction

May 13, 2015 | Allianz SE

Although Germany is no longer the driving force, the economic recovery in the eurozone is nevertheless picking up a bit of speed.

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UK election: Five issues that need watching for Brexit risk

May 12, 2015 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the general election means that the UK should have a reasonably stable government for the next five years. Two issues, however, will increase uncertainty for businesses and investors in coming years: the strong performance of Scottish nationalists and David Cameron’s promise of a referendum on Britain’s EU membership.

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USA: Back to solid jobs growth

May 08, 2015 | Allianz SE

The jobs report for April supports our view that the US economy is getting back into stride after a very subdued start to the year. The healthy rise in employment indicates that labor demand is based on substantially better production and sales conditions than in the first quarter.

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Germany: Subdued growth in first quarter 2015

May 08, 2015 | Allianz SE

Due to the slight drop in March, industrial production in the first quarter of this year rose by only 0.2% on the final quarter 2014.

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Russia: Economy yet to hit bottom

May 05, 2015 | Allianz SE

The rebound on the Russian financial markets over the past few weeks can hardly be explained by developments in the real economy.

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US GDP: another slip-up in the first quarter

Apr 30, 2015 | Allianz SE

The US economy made a very subdued start to 2015. Just like the disappointing start to 2014, this is likely to be nothing more than a slip-up, as special factors were also at play. It would appear that these factors are partly responsible for the fact that the positive impact of lower oil prices has not yet fully come to fruition. Provided that economic momentum picks up over the next few quarters, driven in particular by private consumption, the US economy can still achieve growth of 2.5% by Q4 2015, as indicated by the Fed in its macroeconomic projections in March. In its latest statement on monetary policy decisions, the Federal Reserve also points to "transitory factors" as having contributed in part to the slowdown in growth. The Fed continues to expect favorable development in the economy, the labor market and inflation. Although the Fed is likely to continue to adopt a "wait and see" policy for the time being, initial key rate corrections are still likely to come this year.

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Germany: Marked slowdown in employment growth

Apr 30, 2015 | Allianz SE

Employment growth in Germany has slowed considerably in the first few months of this year. After the number of people in work rose considerably, by almost 400,000, in the course of last year, the seasonally adjusted increase in the period from December 2014 to March 2015 came in at only 3,000. Given the impetus provided by the drop in energy prices and the depreciation of the euro, there are unlikely to be any economic reasons lurking behind the slowdown in employment growth. It appears that the weaker employment growth is due, at least in part, to the introduction of the minimum wage.

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China: Further economic stabilization measures on the cards

Apr 23, 2015 | Allianz SE

The slowdown in growth in China in the first quarter came as anything but a surprise.

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