Economic ResearchPublications

The NewsLine

Service & Contacts

Dr. Lorenz Weimann

Allianz SE
Phone +49.69.24431-3737
Fax +49.69.24431-6791

Send email

Receive the latest Allianz news and information about upcoming events.


Follow Economic Research on Twitter


  • Contact

  • Newsletter

  • Social Media

Germany: Sentiment more or less stable

Sep 24, 2018 | Allianz SE

After the strong improvement in sentiment in August, the expected counter-movement in September was significantly lower than expected. Good news came from the manufacturing sector, where expectations were on a seven-month high. 


Germany: Industry again with a poor start to the quarter

Sep 07, 2018 | Allianz SE

Seasonally adjusted industrial production fell by 1.1% in July compared with the previous month. It is now 0.9% below the average level of the second quarter. 


EMU: Fiscal policy tailwind not sufficiently exploited

Sep 03, 2018 | Allianz SE

Thanks to favorable macroeconomic conditions, the consolidation of public finances in the eurozone has made some progress. Nevertheless, the from an economic point of view sunny times were not used sufficiently to repair the roof: Government debt in the eurozone is still well above pre-crisis levels, while in some highly indebted euro countries the decline from the debt mountain has only just begun.


Germany: Labor market loses some momentum

Aug 30, 2018 | Allianz SE

The number of unemployed fell by 8,000 in August compared to the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis. The basic trend thus remains clearly positive. However, the momentum has weakened somewhat recently.


Germany: Economy breathes a sigh of relief

Aug 27, 2018 | Allianz SE

Under the impression of at least a temporary easing of tension in the trade dispute with the US, the mood in the German economy improved noticeably in August.


Germany: Economic momentum increases slightly

Aug 14, 2018 | Allianz SE

The German economy picked up some momentum again in the second quarter. Real gross domestic product increased by 0.5% seasonally adjusted compared to the previous quarter, after a slightly upward revised 0.4% in the first quarter. 


Eurozone: Economic growth slows further

Jul 31, 2018 | Allianz SE

With today’s GDP figures, eurozone growth of just over 2% should still be achievable. 


Germany: Economy is moving up a gear

Jul 25, 2018 | Allianz SE

Continuing concerns about an escalation in the trade dispute with the US did not lead to a further significant deterioration in Germany´s economic sentiment in July. 


EMU: Moderate start to H2 2018

Jul 24, 2018 | Allianz SE

Today's sentiment indicators for the eurozone economy point to a moderate start to the second half of 2018.


Germany: Industry starts the second quarter on a weak note

Jun 08, 2018 | Allianz SE

Industrial production fell by a seasonally-adjusted 1.7% in April compared to the previous month. Production is thus 1% below the average level of the first quarter.


EMU: Longer soft-patch?

May 23, 2018 | Allianz SE

The purchasing managers' indices published today fuel doubts about a significant economic acceleration in the second quarter.


Germany: Economic growth temporarily slowed

May 15, 2018 | Allianz SE

Economic growth in Germany slowed significantly to 0.3% in the first quarter of this year, as was already reflected in a number of indicators.


Production data signals mediocre growth at the beginning of the year

May 08, 2018 | Allianz SE

In March, output in industry, including energy and construction, recorded a seasonally adjusted increase of 1% compared to February.


Germany: Soft-patch yes, incipient downturn no

Apr 24, 2018 | Allianz SE

The ifo business climate index for Germany´s industry and trade sector, which assesses the current situation and business expectations, fell again in March.


EMU: Just an economic soft-patch, not the end of the upswing!

Apr 23, 2018 | Allianz SE

Today’s stabilization in eurozone purchasing managers' indices (PMI) is reassuring after recent economic indicators for the region came in below expectations pointing to a marked deceleration in economic momentum.


Germany: Upswing continues despite a slowdown in sentiment

Apr 19, 2018 | Allianz SE

In their spring report published today, the economic research institutes expect economic growth in Germany of 2.2% this year.


EMU: Stable price development

Apr 04, 2018 | Allianz SE

Despite the continuing improvement on the labor market and increased wage dynamics, we do not see any inflation risks arising in the eurozone from the domestic side.


USA: Protectionism can end the expansion

Mar 23, 2018 | Allianz SE

The initial financial market reaction to the announcements of US tariffs on steel and aluminium imports two weeks ago proved surprisingly contained.


Germany: First traces of protectionism

Mar 22, 2018 | Allianz SE

The ifo business climate index for Germany´s industry and trade sector, which assesses the current situation and business expectations, fell again in March.


Germany: Robust labor market

Feb 28, 2018 | Allianz SE

The strong upturn in the German labor market continues unabated.


Ifo business climate index: Trees do not grow into the sky

Feb 22, 2018 | Allianz SE

The business climate index in Germany's industry and trade sector – a combination of assessment of the current situation and business expectations – fell sharply in February.


EMU: Economic upswing not at risk

Feb 21, 2018 | Allianz SE

The setback in today's sentiment indicators is not the beginning of the end of the current economic upswing.


Production remains on the uptrend

Feb 07, 2018 | Allianz SE

In December 2017, output in industry, including energy and construction, fell by 0.6% on a seasonally and working day basis compared with November, but overall output increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2017 compared with the previous quarter.


Financial Markets: No reason to panic

Feb 06, 2018 | Allianz SE

The recent collapse in the stock markets confirms expectations that the year 2018, which is likely to bring further interest rate hikes by the US central banks and the first steps towards normalization of monetary policy in the eurozone and Japan, will be accompanied by sharp fluctuations in prices.


USA: Farewell without surprises

Feb 01, 2018 | Allianz SE

As expected, the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the key interest rate unchanged at its first meeting this year, which was also the last one led by Janet Yellen.


EMU: EMU economy ahead at full speed

Jan 30, 2018 | Allianz SE

The current economic momentum in the euro area (new GDP data, EU Commission sentiment indicators) clearly shows in retrospective that the loose ECB monetary policy is having an effect.


United Kingdom: It's downhill from here for the UK economy

Jan 26, 2018 | Allianz SE

The preliminary Q4 growth estimate seems to underline the British economy’s resilience 18 months after the Brexit vote.


German economy starts the new year with a lot of momentum

Jan 25, 2018 | Allianz SE

At the beginning of the year, sentiment in the German economy improved even further at a high level.


EMU: High time for the ECB to change its signals

Jan 24, 2018 | Allianz SE

Today's sentiment indicators are further evidence that the ECB's easing bias is no longer appropriate.


The economic engine is still running smoothly without overheating

Jan 11, 2018 | Allianz SE

The German economy grew by 2.2% in 2017, the fastest rate of growth seen since 2011. After adjustments to reflect calendar effects, the figure came to as much as 2.5%.


Beyond populism

Dec 15, 2017 | Allianz SE

Mainstream election victories in 2017 made many observers believe that populism has peaked. Looking at longer-term trends that fuel political discontent and disorientation, we do not concur. The days when mainstream center-right and center-left parties smoothly alternated in power appear to be over. That does not mean that all risks are on the downside.


Eurozone: Economy going from strength to strength

Nov 23, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s sentiment indicators provide another positive surprise and point to at least four years of above-potential growth in the eurozone.



Nov 14, 2017 | Allianz SE

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew strongly in the third quarter 2017 as well, notching up a seasonally and calendar-adjusted increase of 0.8%.


ECB: Preserve flexibility

Oct 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

We view critically the European Central Bank’s decision to extend its bond purchasing program beyond the end of 2017 until well into 2018.


Ifo business climate points to ongoing buoyant growth

Oct 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

Already upbeat sentiment in the German economy improved further in October.


Eurozone: Inflation busy going nowhere - no matter

Sep 29, 2017 | Allianz SE

Even if the ECB’s inflation target has not yet been met, we see a return to a healthy price environment in the eurozone.


Buoyant autumn labor market

Sep 29, 2017 | Allianz SE

The decline in the jobless total accelerated appreciably in September, dropping 23,000 on the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms.


Eurozone: Economy enjoying golden autumn

Sep 22, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy has not lost steam in the third quarter either.


USA: Normalization of balance sheet begins

Sep 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

The reduction in the central bank’s balance sheet starting in October is an appropriate step on the path to normalization and comes as no surprise to the markets.


Ifo business climate stagnates at high level

Aug 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

Having climbed from one all-time high to another in recent months, the Ifo business climate index slipped only marginally in August.


Strong economic growth in the first half of 2017

Aug 15, 2017 | Allianz SE

Real gross domestic product (GDP) showed strong growth in both the first (+0.7%) and the second quarter (+0.6%) after adjustments to reflect seasonal and calendar effects.


Strong production growth in the second quarter

Aug 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although production in industry, which includes manufacturing, construction and energy, slipped by 1.1% in June 2017 against the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms and after adjustments to reflect the number of working days, it did bounce back in the second quarter of 2017 compared to the first, expanding by 1.8%.


Eurozone: A string of upbeat numbers

Aug 01, 2017 | Allianz SE

With today’s GDP figures, eurozone growth of just over 2% this year looks well within reach.


Brexit puts brakes on the economy

Jul 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

The British economy put in another weak performance in the second quarter of 2017.


Ifo business climate points to strong second quarter growth

Jul 25, 2017 | Allianz SE

In contrast to the slight dip in the purchasing managers’ index, the Ifo business climate index climbed to a new record level in July.


Lending figures give green light for ECB exit

Jul 18, 2017 | Allianz SE

Ultra-loose monetary policy is not only unwarranted given the healthy economy, today’s bank lending survey results also argue in favor of a normalization of monetary policy.


Ifo business climate points to boom

Jun 26, 2017 | Allianz SE

What seemed hardly possible has come to pass: The ifo business climate for industry and trade in Germany, that reached a record in May, rose again in June.


Eurozone: Don't lose sight of consolidation target

Jun 13, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the back of favorable conditions such as low interest rates and healthy economic growth, headway is being made in consolidating public-sector budgets in the eurozone.


Labor market benefiting from job-intensive growth

May 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The positive trend on the German labor market continued in May as well.


ECB to tip-toe towards exit amid little inflationary pressure

May 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although inflation has retreated again from the 2% mark and is likely to remain mired at its current level, next week’s ECB meeting is not likely to be a complete “non-event”.


Eurozone: Upside risks predominate

May 23, 2017 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy continues to firm up. After a strong start to 2017, the latest sentiment surveys signal that the pace of growth will be maintained in the second quarter.


Upswing moves up a gear

May 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

In the first quarter of 2017 the German economy recorded strong seasonally and working-day adjusted growth of 0.6%, appreciably more buoyant than in the preceding two quarters.


Eurozone economy purring nicely

May 03, 2017 | Allianz SE

GDP continues to grow slightly above potential, capacity utilization has been above-average for a fair while now, the improvement on the labor market continues, wages are edging up


Eurozone: PMIs point to bouyant start to second quarter

Apr 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy is increasingly gaining momentum and breadth.


Labor market still surprising on the upside

Mar 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

The picture on the German labor market has been consistently bright in recent months


Ifo business climate signals buoyant upswing

Mar 27, 2017 | Allianz SE

In German industry both the assessment of the current situation as well as business expectations improved further in March.


Eurozone: Netherlands - Economic outlook rosy despite political uncertainty

Mar 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

The elections in the Netherlands served up no fundamental surprises: Forming a government will not be easy and will be followed by a degree of political instability.


USA: Well-flagged rate move

Mar 16, 2017 | Allianz SE

The Fed’s rate hike came as no surprise. Over the past few weeks the central bankers had been priming the markets for the “March move” in unusually clear fashion.


Germany: Production on the rise

Mar 08, 2017 | Allianz SE

Industrial production and new orders went separate ways in January of this year.


2% inflation only temporary, but ECB should switch course

Mar 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the current pickup in inflation is caused by special effects, we think higher inflation rates in the eurozone are here to stay.


Ifo test: Business situation very robust

Feb 22, 2017 | Allianz SE

Manufacturing companies in Germany are increasingly upbeat about their current business situation.


Eurozone: Business confidence confirms moderate growth pickup

Feb 21, 2017 | Allianz SE

Economic momentum at the start of the year remains strong, in line with our expectations. After slowing in 2016, trade momentum should be boosted by a lower EUR in 2017 (1.05 against the USD) and the global growth acceleration.


China: Foreign trade makes promising start to year

Feb 10, 2017 | Allianz SE

In January 2017, both Chinese exports and imports rose substantially on a year earlier for the first time in more than two years.


Germany: Slide in production should not be dramatized

Feb 07, 2017 | Allianz SE

Although the steep 3% month-on-month slide in industrial production in December can be partially explained by the constellation of Christmas holidays, it does mean that production in the fourth quarter of 2016 actually fell by 0.1% compared with the third quarter.


USA: Fed still on hold

Feb 02, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, the US Federal Reserve left the federal funds target range at 0.50%-0.75% and continued to signal that rates would be lifted gradually.


Eurozone: Economy humming at turn of year

Jan 31, 2017 | Allianz SE

Unfazed by the heightened global uncertainty the eurozone economy put on a spurt at the end of 2016.


China: Official growth target 2017: Lower would be better

Jan 20, 2017 | Allianz SE

All told, today’s fourth quarter 2016 economic data contained few surprises. Peering ahead is more interesting.


ECB: Tapering debate around the corner

Jan 19, 2017 | Allianz SE

As expected, today’s ECB Council meeting was a non-event. The substantially improved economic data of late and the higher December inflation figure in the eurozone offered no grounds to put the recently extended bond purchasing program up for discussion again.


Germany: Signs continue to point to upswing

Jan 12, 2017 | Allianz SE

On the economic front a humming domestic economy was the hallmark of 2016. The external side provided only a limited boost. At 2.5%, German exports expanded more strongly than world trade, which more or less stagnated on average last year.


Trend in inflation argues for ECB flexibility in both directions

Jan 04, 2017 | Allianz SE

One higher inflation figure is not a tipping point, but the latest numbers (and good purchasing manager indices) show that surprises in every direction are possible.


Ifo test shows bullish business conditions

Dec 19, 2016 | Allianz SE

Business conditions improved again in December for the fourth month running and are now the rosiest for more than four years.


ECB: No tapering in sight

Dec 08, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB is sticking with its loose monetary policy: Although the monthly bond purchases are to be reduced to EUR 60bn from April, they are set to continue until at least the end of 2017.


Italy: Reform standstill sine die

Dec 05, 2016 | Allianz SE

After the defeat in the constitutional referendum Italy’s Prime Minister has tendered his resignation. In the short term heightened political uncertainty is likely to weigh on financial markets and economic sentiment.


Italy: Ahead of the vote

Dec 02, 2016 | Allianz SE

The outcome of the Italian constitutional referendum remains open. Polling has already stopped, with a third of voters still undecided.


Inflation and exchange rate: Favorable constellation for tapering

Nov 30, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s inflation numbers are moving slowly in the right direction. Although next week the ECB is likely to extend its monthly bond purchases of EUR 80bn for a few months more, we see plenty of reasons for it to simultaneously announce a reduction in the purchase volume for the time thereafter.


Eurozone: PMIs show economic momentum accelerating

Nov 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy moved up a gear in the final quarter of 2016.


German economic forecast 2017: Upswing with weak points

Nov 16, 2016 | Allianz SE

We expect the German economy to grow by 1.5% in 2017 after 1.9% in 2016. Consumption remains the driving force. We expect the global economic activity to pick up somewhat. The US economic outlook is surrounded by elevated uncertainty.


USA: Fed eyes December rate hike

Nov 03, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Fed steered clear of changing key rates in the nervous pre-election environment. But in line with the signals it had already provided in September, it stresses that an increase in the federal funds rate is imminent.


Eurozone: Moderate upswing continues

Oct 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The eurozone economy remains on a moderate growth path. The Brexit vote has so far had little impact on growth momentum.


Post-Brexit vote economic honeymoon will soon come to an end

Oct 27, 2016 | Allianz SE

The UK economy slowed down in the third quarter of 2016, but the GDP reading – the first official indicator of how the economy as a whole has fared following the Brexit-vote – contained little of the doom and gloom that many had expected following Britain’s decision to exit the EU


Ifo test flags buoyant growth at year-end

Oct 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

Following the jump seen in September, the Ifo business climate improved again in October. The steep rise in business expectations in industry in the last two months is particularly striking.


Eurozone: Good PMIs bolster case for tapering from April

Oct 24, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s survey results confirm that the eurozone economy is ticking over nicely. In early December the ECB will probably outline its tapering plans more specifically. Hopefully it will start to taper in April 2017, which would anyway mean an extension of the bond purchasing program beyond March of next year.


ECB should announce taperiing

Oct 17, 2016 | Allianz SE

This Thursday the ECB is likely to keep its cards close to its chest as to whether it will maintain its bond purchasing program or start tapering from the second quarter 2017.


Germany: Economic engine still purring nicely

Oct 07, 2016 | Allianz SE

On the heels of July’s disappointing numbers, the steep rise in industrial production by a seasonally adjusted 3.3% in August shows that the German economy remains on a growth path.


Eurozone: Slight slowdown in late summer

Sep 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s purchasing manager indices (PMIs) for the eurozone suggest that the economy has lost a little momentum but remains on an upward path. Next year the eurozone economy is likely to move back up a gear.


USA: Cautious monetary policy normalization

Sep 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) remained on hold again at yesterday’s meeting, it is sending very clear signals that it is moving towards a rate hike before the end of this year.


Emerging Markets: Turnaround in capital inflows is not sustainable

Sep 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

For several months now emerging markets have been enjoying increased popularity again among portfolio investors. However, this development is not being driven by fundamental improvements in the emerging markets themselves but reflects more an at least temporary rebound in risk appetite on the international financial markets.


China: Indicators signal slight acceleration in growth

Sep 13, 2016 | Allianz SE

August economic data point to a slight pickup in economic momentum in the third quarter. The booming property market played a key role.


ECB should quash expectations of further monetary policy easing

Sep 06, 2016 | Allianz SE

Further monetary policy easing is more likely to have negative effects than boost the economy.


Eurozone: Higher inflation around the corner, no turnaround on the labor market

Aug 31, 2016 | Allianz SE

The ECB should take a relaxed view of today’s inflation figures. Inflation rates in the eurozone are set to pick up markedly very soon, pushing inflation expectations back up with them.


Ifo test: Industrial sentiment tumbles

Aug 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

The deterioration in German industrial sentiment shown by the ifo test is a warning signal.


USA: Illumination from Jackson Hole?

Aug 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

The US Fed has persistently indicated that the normalization of monetary policy would be gradual. This strategy takes account of the risks of reacting too late or too early.


Eurozone: No damper on sentiment

Aug 23, 2016 | Allianz SE

The robust PMIs suggest that economic momentum in the eurozone remains solid. We do not see any need for the ECB to loosen the monetary reins any further.


Economy recovery remains on track

Aug 12, 2016 | Allianz SE

Although the euro area economy slowed in the second quarter of the year, the economic recovery remains intact.


BoE delivers comprehensive bundle of measures

Aug 04, 2016 | Allianz SE

The Bank of England (BoE) has launched a sweeping bundle of monetary policy measures to cushion the negative impact of the Brexit decision on the UK economy.


Eurozone: Recovery continues

Jul 29, 2016 | Allianz SE

On the right track: The eurozone economy is not exactly humming, but it is growing. Unemployment is falling, not rapidly but steadily.


Ifo test: Only muted reaction to Brexit-vote

Jul 25, 2016 | Allianz SE

According to the July Ifo test, business expectations in German industry clouded over only slightly despite the Brexit-vote.


Eurozone sentiment barometer positive despite Brexit-vote

Jul 22, 2016 | Allianz SE

Today’s purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) for the eurozone confirm both our picture of an ongoing upward trend in the economy as well as the wait-and-see stance of the ECB.


China: Government leans against growth slowdown

Jul 15, 2016 | Allianz SE

Not least thanks to the economic policy measures aimed at stabilizing growth, the Chinese economy in the second quarter of this year was able to maintain the pace of expansion seen in the preceding quarter.


USA: June sentiment indicators surprisingly good

Jul 07, 2016 | Allianz SE

US growth looks to have firmed up in the second quarter. The robust assessment of production and new orders in the surprisingly good survey-based indicators for June suggest that the economy is poised to make a buoyant start to the second half of the year.