- For the 7th edition of our Export Barometer survey, we asked more than 300 French exporters about their 2020 performance, their outlook for 2021 and the main risks and threats to their activity. The results reveal that strong winds of change lie ahead. Four out of 10 French companies observed a decline in their exports in 2020, mainly driven by (i) the deceleration of global demand due to sanitary restrictions, (ii) the disruption of global value chains and (iii) Brexit. But the Covid-19 crisis also represented an opportunity for some exporters: 36% of the companies surveyed reported an increase in their exports in 2020. These companies had one thing in common: they all operated in strategic sectors, such as business services, capital goods and digital services, which managed to thrive amid the crisis.
- Covid-19 has changed the export approach from ‘just in time’ to ’just in case’ in France. Overall, 81% of companies said they had changed their export approach because of the sanitary crisis, notably revising their relations with their suppliers (24%), reviewing contractual conditions offered to customers (21%) and changing modes of transportation and logistical choices (21%). Many companies also appear to have shifted from a logic of ‘just in time’, with value chains designed to produce as quickly as possible, to a logic of ‘just in case’, with the development of new supplier relationships to compensate for possible disruptions of productive activity.
- Optimism is back! 8 out of 10 companies plan to increase their export turnover in 2021 and French companies are more willing to conquer new fast-growing markets. Undeterred by continued restrictions in the first quarter of 2021, 78% of companies plan to increase their export turnover this year. Firm intentions are also at a high level, with 42% of companies stating with certainty that their exports will grow in 2021. These firm intentions are particularly elevated in the capital goods (63%), agriculture, energy and construction (62%), public works (44%) and consumer goods (44%) sectors. Germany, the US and Belgium appear as the three main export destinations of French companies, followed by Spain and the UK. The European tropism remains strong, a sign that French exporters are still betting on markets that they have already mastered.
- However, some exporters are also seeking growth in new destinations: 51% of said they are willing to increase their exports to new countries, against only 39% in our previous survey. The most cited new export destinations are the United Arab Emirates, Canada, Cameroon, Morocco and Senegal. This is a positive indicator concerning the proactivity and confidence of French companies, but also a sign that they have learned a crucial lesson from the Covid-19 crisis: to preserve their activities and anticipate the unforeseen, it is better to reduce dependency on a single area and diversify exports towards fast-growing/recovering new markets.