A stronger US dollar will not be enough to rein in inflation in the US. Even as the appreciation of the USD will reduce inflation by -1.4pp in the next three months, and the US is less exposed to surging energy prices, we still expect inflation to remain well above 2% next year.
Since mid-April, high yield credit has entered a new decompressing regime characterized by a structural increase in risk premium, with market participants pricing in tightening financial conditions, still elevated geopolitical risk, uncertainty around the future inflation path, a deteriorating growth outlook and increased pressures on corporate balance sheets.
With the ECB hiking interest rates for the first time in over 11 years, could tightening financial conditions spark a credit crunch? While banks are in a better condition compared to the sovereign debt crisis more than a decade ago, they have already become more risk-averse.
In 2020, the pandemic made working from home the norm for millions of employees in the EU. Two years later, how do they feel about remote working? In our 2022 Allianz Pulse survey, we asked 1,000 respondents each in Germany, France and Italy about their perceptions of the benefits and challenges.
Some important segments of the US equity market (the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100, the S&P 500 home builders index) were most likely in a bubble mode in 2021; they have not yet completed a typical post-bubble correction, offering more downside than upside.
The race to energy sovereignty sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could push Germany’s green transition well past the finish line. Despite the increased use of coal for electricity generation in the short term, the EU ETS will limit additional emissions, and coal is still on track to be phased out by 2030.
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