Stop-and-go containment measures confirm a return to normal in 2022. After strong post-lockdown catch-up effects, we expect the recovery to slow in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as distancing measures tighten again and ongoing job shedding keeps spend-ing and investment in check.
After its peak on 20 March 2020, the USD has depreciated 10% against the EUR (1.174 as of 21 September 2020), going back to levels last seen in mid-2018. This rapid depreciation has raised many questions about the future of the dollar.
To boost growth after the Covid-19 fallout, Germany and France have introduced large stimulus packages which in terms of magnitude are playing in the same league. Digging below the surface however unveils deeply diverging approaches to boost the recovery.
In response to the Covid-19 crisis, the debt-to-GDP ratio in advanced economies will rise to an all-time high of 130% of GDP this year. At the same time, long-term interest rates are at an all-time low.
At its meeting on 16 September, the last before the election, the U.S. Federal Reserve confirmed our expectations that it will keep rates at 0% into 2023, and let inflation run higher than 2% for an extended period.