Global financial stability is shifting from foreign private capital toward US public-sector backstops, as declining foreign demand for Treasuries and growing market fragmentation increase volatility, weaken the dollar and elevate the role of domestic bonds and gold.
Our Global Insolvency Index looks set to increase by +5% this year (broadly in line with our previous estimate), down from +6% in 2025 and +10% in 2024, leaving it 21% above its pre-pandemic average.
Private credit losses stay contained, but each hike costs more than the last. After the 25bps hike the Fed delivered in September, the first since July 2023, our baseline assumes three more, taking the terminal range to 4.50%-4.75%.
One year into Europe's landmark rearmament announcements: defense spending has increased, financial commitments have expanded (e.g. SAFE loans, +60% commitments in 2028-2034 EU draft budget) and order books have reached record highs.
The first Invest in Germany Summit takes place in Berlin on 19 and 20 October 2026, asking why and how Germany can attract investment. The “why”: a top-tier location that chronically underinvests, including from abroad.
The Allianz Pulse Survey takes the temperature of European households each year on the economic, political and societal issues shaping their lives, with the 2026 edition focusing on artificial intelligence.
