Private markets are opening up to retail, and the product has to be rebuilt to fit. Global private markets have grown more than twentyfold since 2000 to over USD17trn, propelled by institutional adoption of the Yale endowment model that tilted long-duration capital aggressively into illiquid assets.
US large-cap banks posted record Q1 2026 earnings, and both earnings growth and asset quality sits well above trend. Yet, investors seem wary about how long the good times can last, for at least four reasons.
An electric tilt boosted by energy volatility. After a bruising 2025, Q1 2026 data reveal a striking reversal. BEV market share hit 19% EU-wide (+4pps vs; Q1 2025) and surged to 28% in France and 23% in Germany.
US and Eurozone labor markets appear to be in good shape, with headline unemployment rates near historic lows. But three strong undercurrents (immigration policy, the energy-price shock and AI) are churning beneath the calm surface.
The Middle East crisis is squeezing airlines’ jet-fuel supplies. Unlike previous oil crises, the main bottleneck lies in refining capacity and product logistics.
