041 | No quick wins: more jobs but little productivity in the Eurozone
The rebound in business insolvencies is picking up speed. In this episode, we speak to Maxime Lemerle, Lead Insolvency Analyst at Allianz Trade, to understand the outlook for business insolvencies in 2023-2024. Read the full report: Insolvency report: No rest for the leveraged.
Households in the US and Europe built up a sizable amount of excess savings during the pandemic. But this cash cushion is losing its fluff.
Read the full report: Falling off a savings cliff
Over the last decades, and especially since the global financia crisis, structural factors have held down inflation. But now that trend is reversing. In this episode, we learn about the "five Ds" of structurally higher inflation - demographics, decarbonization, deglobalization, digitalization and debt - with Andreas Jobst and, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz, and Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research at Allianz Trade.
Read the full report:
Given the rapid rise in debt ratios during the pandemic and the current energy crisis, it's clear that the EU fiscal framework is in need of reform.
In this episode, we dive into what the European Commission has proposed change about its fiscal rules, and what that could mean for public debt, with Andreas Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, and Maddalena Martini, Economist for Italy and Greece.
Read the full report "EU fiscal rules: Quo vadis?"
Rising interest rates have created very volatile markets in 2022. What happens next for equities and corporate bonds? We find out in this episode with Andreas Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, and Jordi Basco Carrera, Lead Investment Strategist.
Read more from our reports:
• "Market Volatility and Corporate Bonds - Collateral Damage"
The US housing market is adjusting to the new reality of higher-for-longer interest rates. In this episode, we speak to Senior Economist Maxime Darmet to find out more about what's happening in housing and mortgage markets, and what it means for the US economy.
Read the full report: "US housing market: The first victim of the Fed"
Rising interest rates are a big shock for companies, but some sectors are more exposed than others. In this episode, we speak with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Reearch, to find out what the end of zeronomics means for companies.
Read the full report: Double trouble? Inflation means less cash and more debt for companies.
This month, both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the latest in a series of moves to combat surging inflation. This has brought an end to a long era of interest rates being at nearly zero, or even negative, in advanced economies.
In the first episode of this special new season of Tomorrow,Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran tells us more about the end of 'zeronomics' and what is at stake for the global economy.
Find out more about inflation, and what central banks will do next, in our latest global economic outlook: "Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty"
We find out more in this episode with dummyPatricia Pelayo Romero, Expert in insurance and Senior Sector Advisor dummyAurélien Duthoit.
Read the full reports: dummy"European food inflation - and the loser is the consumer" and dummy"Eleven countries at high risk of a food crisis"
With the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China extending supply-chain disruptions and pushing up input costs, the balance of risks has significantly deteriorated for companies.
In this episode we find out what this global context will mean for global business insolvencies with dummyAna Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and dummyMaxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research.
• Read the full report dummy"Global Insolvency Report: Growing risks and uneven state support"
Looking beyond 2022, the war will have far-reaching consequences on the global risk landscape. To find out more, we speak to dummyArne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance, Wealth and Trend Research, and dummyPatricia Pelayo Romero, Expert in Insurance and ESG.
Read the full report dummy"Allianz Global Insurance Report 2022: A decisive decade"
In this episode, we dive into the results with dummyAno Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research, and dummyFrançoise Huang, Senior Economist for APAC and Trade, at Allianz Trade.
Read the full report dummy"Allianz Trade Global Survey 2022"
The US economy is less directly exposed to the economic consequences of the invasion of Ukraine compared to Europe. But surging energy prices are driving inflation even higher, which could accelerate the reversal of the "great resignation" in the job market. In this episode, we find out how with dummyPatricia Pelayo Romero, Insurance and ESG Expert at Allianz SE
Read the full reportdummy "The (energy) price of war: when inflation bites US savings"
Read the full report "The (energy) price of war for European households"
Read the full report "Russian dolls: unwrapping corporate (commodity) dependencies"
The invasion of Ukraine has sparked drastic sanctions against Russia. What will this mean for its economy, and for the rest of the world? We find out in this episode with Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Euler Hermes , and Andy Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz .
Read the full report "Russia-Ukraine crisis: Conflict escalation".
and Sector Advisor Ano Kuhanathan.
Read the full report "Frying pan to fire: Will inflation spark a wage-price spiral in 2022?"
We're back for Season 3!
In this episode, we look at the outlook for the global economy in 2022-2023, talk about how supply-chain disruptions and inflation will play out, and what could possibly go wrong, with Ana Boata , Head of Economic Research at Euler Hermes, and Andy Jobst , Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz.
Read the full report "Economic outlook - don't look up!"
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