This month, both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the latest in a series of moves to combat surging inflation. This has brought an end to a long era of interest rates being at nearly zero, or even negative, in advanced economies.

In the first episode of this special new season of Tomorrow, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran tells us more about the end of 'zeronomics' and what is at stake for the global economy.

Find out more about inflation, and what central banks will do next, in our latest global economic outlook: "Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty"

Global food prices have surged by 56% as the war in Ukraine disrupts supplies of wheat, corn and sunflower oil. This could put millions of people at risk of food insecurity, amplifying the risk of social unrest in several emerging markets.
We find out more in this episode with dummy Patricia Pelayo Romero, Expert in insurance and Senior Sector Advisor dummy Aurélien Duthoit.

Read the full reports: dummy "European food inflation - and the loser is the consumer" and dummy "Eleven countries at high risk of a food crisis"

With the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China extending supply-chain disruptions and pushing up input costs, the balance of risks has significantly deteriorated for companies.

In this episode we find out what this global context will mean for global business insolvencies with dummy Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and dummy Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for Insolvency Research.

• Read the full report dummy "Global Insolvency Report: Growing risks and uneven state support"

2022 was expected to be another bumper year for the insurance industry, but the invasion of Ukraine has dashed those hopes. According to the Allianz Global Insurance Report 2022, premium income is likely to grow by roughly 1pp slower than originally assumed as the war takes its toll on economic activity and confidence, even as inflation supports the top line.
Looking beyond 2022, the war will have far-reaching consequences on the global risk landscape. To find out more, we speak to dummy Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance, Wealth and Trend Research, and dummy Patricia Pelayo Romero, Expert in Insurance and ESG.

Read the full report dummy "Allianz Global Insurance Report 2022: A decisive decade"

In our Allianz Trade Global Survey 2022, we decided to check the pulse of exporters in the US, China, the UK, France, Italy and Germany. Two surveys were carried out – one before the start of the invasion of Ukraine and one after, involving nearly 3,000 corporates.
In this episode, we dive into the results with dummy Ano Kuhanathan, Head of Corporate Research, and dummy Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for APAC and Trade, at Allianz Trade.

Read the full report dummy "Allianz Trade Global Survey 2022"

The US economy is less directly exposed to the economic consequences of the invasion of Ukraine compared to Europe. But surging energy prices are driving inflation even higher, which could accelerate the reversal of the "great resignation" in the job market. In this episode, we find out how with dummy Patricia Pelayo Romero, Insurance and ESG Expert at Allianz SE

Read the full reportdummy "The (energy) price of war: when inflation bites US savings"

With energy prices surging in Europe, households and companies are feeling the pinch. In this episode, we speak with  Ana Boata  , Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade, and  Ano Kuhanathan  , Head of Corporate Research, to find out how long higher energy prices could last, and which countries and sectors could be hit the hardest.

Read the full report  "The (energy) price of war for European households" 
Read the full report  "Russian dolls: unwrapping corporate (commodity) dependencies" 

The invasion of Ukraine has sent energy prices surging, which means inflation is likely to remain higher and stickier in 2022. What does this mean for central banks and monetary policy in the US and Eurozone? We find out in this episode with  Patrick Krizan  and  Katharina Utermohl  , Senior Economists at Allianz.

The invasion of Ukraine has sparked drastic sanctions against Russia. What will this mean for its economy, and for the rest of the world? We find out in this episode with  Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Euler Hermes  , and  Andy Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz  .

Read the full report  "Russia-Ukraine crisis: Conflict escalation". 

 

Record-high inflation is turning up the heat on central banks, but could a wage-price spiral make things worse? In this episode, we find out which countries and sectors are most at risk with  Senior Economist Selin Ozyurt
and  Sector Advisor Ano Kuhanathan. 
Read the full report  "Frying pan to fire: Will inflation spark a wage-price spiral in 2022?" 

We're back for Season 3!

In this episode, we look at the outlook for the global economy in 2022-2023, talk about how supply-chain disruptions and inflation will play out, and what could possibly go wrong, with  Ana Boata  , Head of Economic Research at Euler Hermes, and  Andy Jobst  , Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research at Allianz.

Read the full report  "Economic outlook - don't look up!" 

To stay up to date with our latest publications, subscribe to the  Ludonomics newsletter on LinkedIn 

At their December policy meetings, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB will be tested on their monetary policy stance amid higher omicron-related uncertainty. In this episode, we speak to Andy Jobst, Head of Macroeconomic and Capital Markets Research, to find out what to expect.

Read the full report  "Monetary policy: Omicron management & beyond" 

Despite the global economic recovery, watch out for increased debt distress in Emerging Markets, and especially in low-income developing countries, which will need a minimum of USD450bn to step up their spending response to Covid-19.

In this episode, Senior Economist Selin Ozyurt explains which countries are most at risk, and why current debt-relief initiatives will only kick the can down the road.

Read the full report  "Emerging Markets debt relief: Kicking the can down the road"

COP26 has been the center of attention in November 2021, but is the EU on track to meet its climate goals?

In this episode, our Senior ESG Expert Markus Zimmer explains why the road to net-zero appears rocky, paved with high costs and high uncertainty, with a focus on the EU's transport and utility sectors.

Read the full reports

 "Transport in a zero carbon EU: Pathways and opportunities"

  "The EU utility transition: A pathway powered by solar and wind"

In 2020, monetary and fiscal policy mobilized unimagined sums to stabilize incomes. At the same time, as lockdowns drastically reduced consumption opportunities, the global phenomenon of "forced savings" was born. In this context, global household wealth reached the magic EUR200trillion mark for the very first time.

In this episode, we find out more from the Allianz Global Wealth Report 2021 with Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance, Wealth and Trend Research at Allianz Research.

• Read the full report "Allianz Global Wealth Report 2021: Saving from home"

• To stay up to date with our latest publications, subscribe to the Ludonomics newsletter on LinkedIn 

The withdrawal of state support measures for companies sets the stage for a gradual normalization of business insolvencies, but some countries could see a resurgence faster than others.

In this episode, we find out what will shape the path ahead for business insolvencies with Maxime Lemerle, Head of Sector and Insolvency Research at Allianz Research.

• Read the full report "Global Insolvencies: We'll be back"

"Business as usual” won't be enough: Germany urgently needs an update to master the upcoming digital, green and demographic transitions.

In this episode, Senior Economist Katharina Utermöhl explains in detail what's at stake, and why the the three-party coalition likely after last month's elections could result in more policy evolution than revolution.

Read the full report "How to future-proof the German Wirtschaftswunder"

With the spread of the Delta variant, growth momentum softened over the summer and uncertainty remains high. What is the outlook for 2021 and 2022, and what other risks lie ahead? We find out in this episode with Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist of Allianz Research.

Read the full report "Global economy: A cautious back-to-school"

Since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, the cost of global trade has surged as lockdowns and other restrictions disrupted shipping and pushed up input prices. How long could these pressures last, and which countries and sectors could be hit the hardest?

In this episode, Françoise Huang, Senior Economist for Asia-Pacific and Trade at Allianz Research, explains what to expect for global trade for the rest of 2021 and 2022.

Read the full report "Global Trade - ship me if you can!"

As Covid-19 restrictions ease, business investment in the Eurozone will rebound in the short run. But it could take up to four years to return to long-term growth trends.

In this episode, Senior Economist Selin Ozyurt explains the outlook for the business investment recovery in the Eurozone.

Read the full report "Investment is back: Harder, better, faster, stronger?"

For the EU, US and China, the economic recovery after Covid-19 offers an unprecedented opportunity to accelerate in the race to dominate energy transition industries. But as Markus Zimmer, Senior ESG expert explains in this episode, innovation will be the key factor deciding who actually wins.

Read the full report "The hot race for green tech dominance to cool the global climate"

In this era of Quantitative Easing, there’s a pervasive belief in capital markets that it’s the quantity of money put into the economy by central banks that matters the most. But what's overlooked is the velocity of money.

In this episode, Head of Capital Markets Research Eric Barthalon explains what this concept is, and why it matters.

Read the full report "The flaw in the liquidity paradigm: lessons from China"

 

In recent months, a global shortage of semiconductors has highlighted how dependent several industries have become on this single component, prompting both China and Europe to announce ambitious plans to achieve semiconductor autonomy.

In this episode, Senior Sector Advisor Aurélien Duthoit explains why this may not be the most effective strategy.

Read the full report "China: Riding the silicon ox"

Read the full report "Semiconductors realpolitik: A reality check for Europe"

Over a year into the Covid-19 pandemic, the global economy is finally seeing some light at the end of the tunnel, making it the right time to check the pulse in Germany, France and Italy.

In this episode, we discover the results of the Allianz Pulse 2021 with Head of Wealth and Insurance Research Arne Holzhausen.

Read the full report "Allianz Pulse 2021 - old beliefs die hard"

After several waves of infections, and repeated lockdowns, the rapid pace of vaccination in many advanced economies has set the stage for a grand reopening. But the recovery won't be even around the world.

In this episode, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran explains the outlook for 2021 and beyond.

Read the full report "Grand reopening: new opportunities, old risks"

To stay up to date with our latest publications, subscribe to the Ludonomics newsletter on LinkedIn

With the US economy set for a a booming recovery after the Covid-19 crisis, there's a chance the Federal Reserve could start reining in its ultra-loose monetary policy sooner than expected.

This would have serious consequences for Emerging Markets. In this episode, we find out which ones could be most at risk of a taper tantrum with Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz.

Read the full report "Taper Tantrum in 2021-22: Beware of the TUCKANS"

Covid-19 has sparked a fundamental change in global risk awareness. And that has consequences for the insurance industry, coming after a dismal decade of growth. What does the future hold for the industry, and how can it adapt to the new risk landscape? In this episode we speak to Arne Holzhausen, Head of Insurance and Wealth Research at Allianz.

In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, financial and risk literacy matters more than ever. But our survey of savers shows that the level of financial literacy is disastrously low. We speak to Patricia Pelayo Romero, expert in Insurance at Allianz Research, about what policymakers need to do to close the gap.

Eurozone governments have provided billions of euros in support for companies in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis. This has resulted in cash reserves soaring in the Eurozone. In this episode we find out what they could be used for with Head of Macroeconomic Research Ana Boata.

Could the Covid-19 crisis mark the end of the low-inflation era in the US and the Eurozone? In this episode, we speak to Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran about what to really expect from inflation in 2021 and beyond.