Economic forecast 2016

Up until this fall, the economic picture in individual countries and regions has remained mixed.

Bumpy recovery and volatile financial markets

At the start of the year prospects were fairly good that global economic growth in 2015 would be appreciably stronger than in 2014.

Financial market and economic outlook 2015

2014 has been a remarkable year, also for us forecasters. Despite major uncertainties like the Ukraine crisis, the weakness of the Russian economy, the slowdown in Brazil, the uncertainties about the Fed’s exit from monetary accommodation and deflation fears in Europe, the world economy has not performed badly.

The return of the long-term saver?

Judging by media reports, today’s low yield environment is a fatal threat to the life insurance & pension industry. With depressed yields, long-term savers are bound to become extinct, liquidity is king. Or so goes the siren song of the self-proclaimed augurs.

Economic forecast 2015

After a good start to the year the upswing has temporarily stalled. In the second quarter the German economy contracted slightly and business expectations have clouded over substantially compared with early in the year. A key factor behind this is the uncertain geopolitical backdrop, first and foremost the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

German investments abroad - a bad deal?

In 2013 the German economy generated the world's highest current account surplus, overshooting the EUR 200bn mark with further rises likely in the future. The trend provides plenty of new ammunition to critics of Germany's current account surplus, which has been a hot topic of debate for years now.

Global economy on growth path - but with numerous risks

Allianz has analyzed the medium-term economic outlook with a base scenario and three risk scenarios.

Economic forecast 2014/2015

The German economy got off to a buoyant start to 2014. Industrial orders and production in January and February were well up on the corresponding level a year earlier. Retail sales in the first two months of the year were up markedly on late 2013 levels, exports and imports also rose substantially in January. The unemployment picture was also appreciably brighter than normal at the start of the year. This confirms our upbeat forecast for the German economy that we have been championing since mid-2013.

Economic forecast 2014

Following a lukewarm start to 2013 the German economy has gathered steam since the spring. Second-quarter growth of 0.7 percent was buoyed by catch-up effects in the construction sector, but further production increases are on the cards in the second half of the year.