Having peaked in January 2004, the indicator drifted south over the rest of the year, thus correctly flagging the slowdown in growth in the course of last year. Following stabilization in late 2004/early 2005, it then dipped again from February 2005. This suggests that, following higher growth in the first quarter of 2005, the world economy has now cooled down again.
World Economy: Allianz Indicator measures temperature of world economy
The Allianz Indicator condenses a host of different trends (hard indicators: crude oil price, retail sales, production figures; monetary indicators: stock index, real exchange rate, yields; soft indicators: consumer confidence, purchasing managers' index) into one overall index and provides early pointers to global economic momentum.
Regional indices for the USA, the euro area and Japan as well as hard, monetary and soft global sub-indices increase the informative value of the Allianz World Indicator.
Dr. Harald Jörg
Tel.: +49.69.2 63 – 1 99 13
E-Mail: harald.joerg@dresdner-bank.com