Since early 2002 prices for coking coal and coke have roughly trebled. However, many of the mainly small and medium-sized enterprises are not able to pass these higher prices on to their customers. In late 2004 16 % of 300 companies surveyed said they were in acute difficulty. A new study by the economists of Allianz Group and Dresdner Bank argues that if individual stages of the value chain disappear, the German economy as a whole is the loser. The various stages of the value chain are exceptionally close-knit. As a result, they only have a future in Germany if they exist collectively. Given Germany's shortage of raw materials, supply bottlenecks or price increases for key commodities jeopardize growth and employment more than in other countries. Apart from the supply shortage, oligopolistic structures in international mining and competition-distorting state measures are also putting upward pressure on prices. lt can take up to ten years, or even more, from the discovery of a raw materials reserve to development and extraction – hence short-term strategies to cover increased demand are doomed to fail. In Germany more importance needs to be attached to the commodity conundrum and a long-term raw material strategy developed. The companies affected need to work out a long-term strategy on raw material procurement, the government should do all in its power to facilitate industrial growth in Germany. Among other things, this requires a consistent energy policy and the removal of competitive disadvantages compared with European rivals – for example, Germany has the second highest electricity prices in Europe behind Italy.