The figures published last week on economic developments in the fourth quarter 2012 – first and foremost the economic growth data – provided a picture of a slight pickup in economic momentum in the world’s second largest economy. The latest survey in the manufacturing sector confirms this picture, with sentiment in Chinese industry the most upbeat it has been for two years. A look at the various sub-indices is interesting: the sub-index “export orders” lags well behind the positive development in other sub-indices such as, for instance, “total orders”. This indicates that, in the coming months as well, the growing economic momentum will tend to come more from rising domestic economic activity and less from an appreciable pickup in foreign demand.
All told, we see the Chinese economy growing by an average 8.3% this year, slightly up on last year’s 7.8%. Sustained growth rates of well above 8% – as was the rule until fairly recently – now look relatively unlikely given the overall complex global economic environment and against the backdrop of the economic development stage now reached.