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Equity captures the upside of the AI build-out, while credit absorbs the loss if it fails – yet creditors are compensated with under 1% p.a. on 5-year bonds and around 2% on 10-year.
A challenging but still holding macroeconomic backdrop. Global growth is expected to ease to +2.5% in 2026 before rebounding to +2.9% in 2027, propped up significantly by AI investment, which alone contributes roughly a third of US growth.
Central bank credibility is becoming a risk rather than a background condition. At Jackson Hole, the new Fed Chairman called for a quieter central bank, breaking with two decades of managing expectations while the US Treasury is co-steering financial conditions through debt maturity and buybacks.