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Oct 14, 2022

‘Whatever it takes’ reloaded

We estimate that current (median) fiscal support amounts to about 3% of GDP in Europe (more than EUR475bn, on top of the EUR170bn pre-conflict). Unsurprisingly, the fiscal response is somewhat higher in countries with a larger energy-intensive industry and/or greater gas dependence. 

 

Oct 12, 2022

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2022: The last hurrah

In retrospective, 2021 might have been the last year of the old “new normal”, with bullish stock markets powered by monetary policy. Households benefitted handsomely: For a third year in a row, global financial assets grew by double-digits in 2021, reaching EUR 233trn (+10.4%).

 

 

Oct 05, 2022

Globalization 2.0: Can the US and EU really “friendshore” away from China?

Globalization is changing, not dying, but recent crises have raised questions about the structure of global supply chains, and the exposure to geopolitically non-aligned suppliers. 

Oct 04, 2022

Gilt market meltdown – a first post mortem and key takeaways

The gilt crash in the UK was not a repeat of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but rather a liquidity-induced market accident that put financial stability at risk.

Sep 30, 2022

Eurozone public debt: The interest rates reality check

In recent years, Eurozone governments borrowing more and more seemed to matter less and less as falling interest rates made high and rising debt levels less burdensome.

Sep 29, 2022

Reverse currency war puts emerging markets at risk

The increasingly hawkish US Fed has triggered a “reverse currency war” as central banks tighten their stance more than would otherwise be necessary if inflationary pressures were less universal.

Sep 22, 2022

US housing market: The first victim of the Fed

The US housing market is adjusting to the new reality of higher-for-longer interest rates. Interest rates are rising rapidly – the Fed delivered a third consecutive 75bp hike during the September FOMC meeting – and unlikely to decrease much in 2023 as the FOMC will be keen to restore its inflation-fighting credibility. 

Sep 20, 2022

Shipping: liners swimming in money but supply chains sinking

2022 will be a record year for container shipping companies. We expect the sector’s revenue to jump by +19% y/y and its operating cash flow to grow by +8% y/y. While freight rates have fallen -32% year-to-date, they are still well above the pre-pandemic average. 

Sep 15, 2022

Fall Economic Outlook: Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality. The trifecta of lower growth, higher inflation and higher rates will hit even harder. 

604 releases in total