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Sep 13, 2022

Missing chips cost EUR100bn to the European auto sector

The automotive industry has been the number one casualty of the global semiconductor crunch: We estimate that it led to a shortfall of about 18mn vehicles around the world. Europe’s automotive sector has been hit the hardest, and its weak semiconductor sector did not help. We estimate that the semiconductor crunch will cost Europe about EUR100bn over 2021 and 2022. 

Sep 09, 2022

Italy’s elections: Snapping back?

Rising political risks have exacerbated an already challenging economic outlook for Italy: Ahead of the snap elections on 25 September, a right-wing coalition comprising the Brothers of Italy, Lega and Forza Italia is currently leading the polls and is likely to secure the parliamentary majority. 

Sep 07, 2022

Double trouble? Inflation means less cash and more debt for companies

Despite exceeding 2019 levels by 30% in Europe and 50% in the US as of Q2 2022, cash buffers are decreasing as most firms in both the US and Europe have been burning cash in 2022. Countries, sectors and firms now face different challenges. The energy crisis could be a major blow in Europe for energy-intensive sectors (Power, Paper, Metals, Railways, Chemicals etc.) while the strong dollar could harm exporting sectors in the US. 

Sep 01, 2022

Averting 'Gasmageddon' and securing a just transition

The gas crisis threatens to morph into “Gasmageddon”: Energy poverty is an old scourge in the EU, even before today’s energy crisis began. The situation has worsened significantly this year as the invasion of Ukraine has caused gas prices to explode to levels not seen in well over a decade. A dual-pricing scheme could address the shortcomings of the counter-measures implemented so far.

Aug 30, 2022

Green infrastructure investment

The war in Ukraine underscores that scaling up investment in climate-smart infrastructure is necessary to ensure energy and food security as we transition to a lower-carbon future. 

Jul 28, 2022

How to ease inflation? Non-tariff barriers to trade in the spotlight

A stronger US dollar will not be enough to rein in inflation in the US. Even as the appreciation of the USD will reduce inflation by -1.4pp in the next three months, and the US is less exposed to surging energy prices, we still expect inflation to remain well above 2% next year.

Jul 26, 2022

High yield: have the tourists left?

Since mid-April, high yield credit has entered a new decompressing regime characterized by a structural increase in risk premium, with market participants pricing in tightening financial conditions, still elevated geopolitical risk, uncertainty around the future inflation path, a deteriorating growth outlook and increased pressures on corporate balance sheets. 

Jul 21, 2022

Eurozone: watch credit conditions!

With the ECB hiking interest rates for the first time in over 11 years, could tightening financial conditions spark a credit crunch? While banks are in a better condition compared to the sovereign debt crisis more than a decade ago, they have already become more risk-averse. 

Jul 20, 2022

Remote work: Is the honeymoon over?

In 2020, the pandemic made working from home the norm for millions of employees in the EU. Two years later, how do they feel about remote working? In our 2022 Allianz Pulse survey, we asked 1,000 respondents each in Germany, France and Italy about their perceptions of the benefits and challenges. 

604 releases in total