The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought back significant headwinds to the global economic recovery and raised wider geopolitical risks. We have cut our global growth forecast to +3.3% in 2022 and +2.8% in 2023, revised on the downside by -0.8pp and -0.4pp respectively.
The US economy is less directly exposed to the economic consequences of the invasion of Ukraine compared to Europe. But surging energy prices will drive inflation even higher.
The invasion of Ukraine has created a significant negative supply-side shock to the Eurozone. Inflation continues to rise while financial sanctions have effectively shut down non-energy trade with Russia.
The unadjusted gender pay gap is a snapshot that shows the average differences in pay between all men and all women in the workforce. It stands at 15% in the EU. Reflecting mostly lower participation rates and shorter working lives, the unadjusted gender pension gap is more than twice as high.
The invasion of Ukraine will propel Europe's already high energy prices even higher: We expect at least +30% increase in the energy bill for 2022, hitting low-income households in the UK and Germany the hardest.
Giving up gas imports from Russia, which account for 36% of total EU gas supply, will not be easy for Europe. We estimate the amount of energy at risk across the EU at almost 10% of final consumption.
The escalation of the conflict between Russia and the Ukraine is likely to have important economic and financial consequences through three main transmission channels — energy, trade, and the financial sector — depending how current and future sanctions will play out.
Is the middle class shrinking? The data suggest a heterogeneous picture, but genuine success stories are rare: In most countries, the situation of the middle class has deteriorated, especially with regard to its share of total wealth.
Strong cash balances (EUR690bn above pre-crisis levels in the Eurozone and more than USD765bn in the US), as well as rising profitability and capex, are cushioning most US and Eurozone companies from high input prices.
Carbon Farming is central in the EU strategy for capturing CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in natural sinks like forests or agricultural land. Yet to comply with the 1.5°C goal, the EU needs total investments of EUR185bn and an annual investment gap of EUR8.3bn needs to be filled.
