All publications

China: Putting the tiger on a stronger footing in 2022

The Chinese economy is experiencing a difficult start to 2022, driven by renewed Covid-19 outbreaks. Even if the sanitary context eases, private consumption is likely to remain below the pre-pandemic trend level in 2022.

The flailing domestic leg should be supported by further policy rate cuts, public investment in infrastructure and temporarily laxer regulation. The external leg should remain robust. All this should bring the Chinese economy to a stronger footing in H2 2022. Beyond that, achieving “common prosperity” could imply a volatile medium-term growth pattern, depending on how policies are implemented and communicated.

Can 5G reignite the smartphone industry?

The rollout of 5G won’t be enough to kickstart a new era of “peak smartphone” in North America and Western Europe. China’s experience shows that users appreciate 5G, but will not rush for it.

European Central Bank: Last dove standing?

Despite large inflation upside surprises since the last policy meeting, with the January HICP release registering the largest upside surprise ever, we think the ECB will maintain its monetary policy stance—for now. Supply-side effects, especially energy prices, are still the key inflation drivers while second-round effects—inflation expectations and wage growth—remain moderate.

Allianz Pension Report: Latam special 2022

The results of our Allianz Pension Indicator, which assesses how prepared global pension systems are for demographic change, show that despite some recent reforms, the sustainability and adequacy of Latin America’s pension systems have hardly changed within the last two years. 

US Fed: A fata morgana hiking cycle?

While the rate lift-off might already start in March, signals are piling up that the Fed might break its hiking cycle after 2-3 hikes, much earlier than markets currently expect.

Mental health: Raising awareness and calling to action

The Covid-19 pandemic brought a hidden endemic condition into the light: The share of people who report mental health problems has increased markedly, with the prevalence more than doubling in many countries.

Will inflation spark a wage-price spiral in 2022?

Record-high inflation in advanced economies is turning up the heat on central banks. With average wages set to rise significantly in 2022, they face a difficult choice: overlooking the overshoot to protect the post-Covid recovery or tightening quickly to stave off a potential wage-price spiral that would add fuel to the fire.

Economic Outlook: Don’t Look Up!

Global growth should remain robust but uneven, with rising divergence between advanced and emerging market economies. However, just like in the eponymous movie, whose title we borrowed for this report, current growth dynamics might keep us from looking up during the current phase of the recovery. 

Public infrastructure investment: Enough bang for the buck?

After a decade of declining capital spending, public infrastructure investment is surging in the US and Europe. Scaling up spending on infrastructure has become an essential element of the fiscal stimulus to boost economies after Covid-19.

Social Risk Index: Leave the door open for development

Even before Covid-19 upended our lifestyles, social and political risk were already on the rise in a number of countries and regions, largely due to the mismanagement of social protection. How has Covid-19 changed social risk?