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Apr 21, 2022

Corporate credit: straddle or struggle?

The war in Ukraine has put pressure on European corporate margins. The conflict has sent (energy) commodity prices soaring, amplified existing supply-chain disruptions and increased uncertainty weighing on investment. 

Apr 20, 2022

The cost of the zero-Covid policy for China and the world

With provinces accounting for nearly a quarter of GDP under partial or full lockdown, the cost of China’s zero-Covid policy is climbing. We expect that omicron outbreaks in Q1 and April will have cost -0.4pp of GDP growth in 2022. 

Apr 13, 2022

200bps more - Will the Fed hike the economy into recession?

The flattening (and partially inverted) US yield curve is signaling rising recession fears. There are signs that a rapid hiking cycle could narrow the window for a “soft landing” as a slowing economy amid elevated energy prices makes a recession increasingly probable. 

Apr 08, 2022

Emerging market sovereigns: turbulent times ahead?

Financial tightening in advanced economies and slowing trade growth have created less favorable conditions for emerging market sovereigns, which have been amplified by the effects of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices. 

Apr 06, 2022

French presidential elections: “Don’t panique !”

Is the market underestimating the risk of a surprise outcome in the French elections? Unlike 2017 the delicate phase for investors lies between the first and second round. A significant repricing of the political risk premium could occur in case we see (i) a massive shift in second-round voting intentions against incumbent Emmanuel Macron and/or (ii) a risk of massive abstention. 

Apr 01, 2022

How green is the French Presidential Campaign?

Climate policy is the missing piece of the puzzle ahead of France’s Presidential elections. France has set ambitious targets to combat climate change, including reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by -40% by 2030 compared to 1990. 

Mar 30, 2022

Is fashion retail falling out of fashion?

European consumer confidence has taken a hit in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine. Amid lower economic growth, retailers could face a -EUR4.85bn hit to fashion consumer spending for 2022, with Italy (-EUR1.45bn) and Germany (-EUR1.12bn) facing the largest declines. 

Mar 25, 2022

Germany: Limiting economic pain from going cold turkey on Russian gas

Should gas supplies from Russia come to a halt, we estimate Germany’s supply gap at 30% of total gas consumption. Additional storage withdrawal, tapping new gas suppliers, substitution measures such as fuel-switching and self-rationing by the private sector due to sky-high gas prices will help reduce the shortfall and cause limited economic disruptions; yet the remaining gas supply gap of 13% will require rationing actions.

Mar 25, 2022

Global Trade: Battling out of demand and price shocks

The invasion of Ukraine and renewed Covid-19 outbreaks in China are hitting global trade with a double whammy in 2022: lower volumes and higher prices. 

Mar 22, 2022

Russian dolls: unwrapping corporate (commodity) dependencies

Global trade exposure to the Russian and Ukrainian economies is limited and has been declining over the past year, which will restrict the direct impact of the war to certain countries (eg. Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Turkey) and sectors (oil & gas, fertilizers, metals, agrifood). 

604 releases in total