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May 23, 2022

European food inflation: and the loser is the consumer

Food prices and food security concerns were high on the agenda of the G7 group of countries meeting on 13-14 May in Stuttgart (Germany). Agricultural food prices rose by +31% in 2021 and will increase by a further +23% in 2022 amid a general increase in input costs (fuel, electricity, fertilizers), years of lower agricultural yields translating into low stocks and, more recently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacting not only the supply of food staples such as wheat or oil, but also having ripple effects on the prices of substitutes.

May 18, 2022

Global Insolvency Report: Growing risks and uneven state support

The war in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China have significantly deteriorated the balance of risks for companies. The shockwaves are visible in the extended supply-chain disruptions and transportation bottlenecks, as well as high input costs and shortages, notably for energy and commodities but also labor. 

May 16, 2022

TGIF? Allianz Survey on Job Attitudes

What drives people to wake up every morning and go to work? With labor markets turning from loose to (extremely) tight, we decided to check the pulse of workers in France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US. In April, we interviewed 1,000 people in each country to find out about their attitudes to work and how they value their jobs. 

May 11, 2022

Who should be afraid of a stop in Russian energy supply?

The EU can easily manage an immediate embargo on crude oil imports from Russia. Within two months or so, OPEC members could step up crude oil production to the levels of H2 2018 (which implies +3.3 Mbb/d vs. Q1 2022) and Norway, the US and the UK could add another +0.5 Mbb/d to global output. 

May 10, 2022

US and European EV outlook: Driving the energy transition

The global electric vehicle (EV) market is booming: Sales more than doubled in 2021 and market share reached around 8%.  This positive momentum is likely to continue, with estimated growth of +50% in 2022. 

May 04, 2022

Eurozone inflation: How bad can it get?

Inflation is back with a vengeance in the Eurozone, sending the cost of living to record highs. Aside from pandemic-related base and one-off effects, snarled-up global supply chains have failed to keep up with post-pandemic demand. 

May 02, 2022

Germany’s Easter package: Great green intentions

The starting shot for Germany’s green transformation, the Easter package announced last month calls for a near tripling of electricity generation from renewables by 2030. 

Apr 28, 2022

France: Turn the music off to hear the bells tolling

After an election campaign dominated by the topics of dwindling purchasing power and surging energy prices, it is now time for an economic reality check in France. The first 100 days of Macron’s second term need to establish a roadmap to tackle three issues in urgent need of reforms.  

Apr 26, 2022

Forget earnings yield, embrace “expected” capital gains?

Movements in interest rates alone cannot explain fluctuations in the earnings yield. We find that two variables – the long-term risk-free interest rate and, more surprisingly, the “expected” rate of capital gains (proxied by a weighted average of past equity returns) – explain the cyclically adjusted earnings yield of U.S. equities (S&P 500), which has dropped to a record low.

Apr 21, 2022

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2022

How is the current international environment affecting exporters and their willingness to trade? Allianz Trade, the world leader in trade credit insurance, decided to check the pulse of companies in the United States, China, the United Kingdom, France, Italy and Germany. Two surveys were carried out – one before the start of the invasion of Ukraine and one after, involving nearly 3,000 corporates.

604 releases in total