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Oct 04, 2022

Gilt market meltdown – a first post mortem and key takeaways

The gilt crash in the UK was not a repeat of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but rather a liquidity-induced market accident that put financial stability at risk.

Sep 30, 2022

Eurozone public debt: The interest rates reality check

In recent years, Eurozone governments borrowing more and more seemed to matter less and less as falling interest rates made high and rising debt levels less burdensome.

Sep 29, 2022

Reverse currency war puts emerging markets at risk

The increasingly hawkish US Fed has triggered a “reverse currency war” as central banks tighten their stance more than would otherwise be necessary if inflationary pressures were less universal.

Sep 22, 2022

US housing market: The first victim of the Fed

The US housing market is adjusting to the new reality of higher-for-longer interest rates. Interest rates are rising rapidly – the Fed delivered a third consecutive 75bp hike during the September FOMC meeting – and unlikely to decrease much in 2023 as the FOMC will be keen to restore its inflation-fighting credibility. 

Sep 20, 2022

Shipping: liners swimming in money but supply chains sinking

2022 will be a record year for container shipping companies. We expect the sector’s revenue to jump by +19% y/y and its operating cash flow to grow by +8% y/y. While freight rates have fallen -32% year-to-date, they are still well above the pre-pandemic average. 

Sep 15, 2022

Fall Economic Outlook: Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality. The trifecta of lower growth, higher inflation and higher rates will hit even harder. 

Sep 13, 2022

Missing chips cost EUR100bn to the European auto sector

The automotive industry has been the number one casualty of the global semiconductor crunch: We estimate that it led to a shortfall of about 18mn vehicles around the world. Europe’s automotive sector has been hit the hardest, and its weak semiconductor sector did not help. We estimate that the semiconductor crunch will cost Europe about EUR100bn over 2021 and 2022. 

Sep 09, 2022

Italy’s elections: Snapping back?

Rising political risks have exacerbated an already challenging economic outlook for Italy: Ahead of the snap elections on 25 September, a right-wing coalition comprising the Brothers of Italy, Lega and Forza Italia is currently leading the polls and is likely to secure the parliamentary majority. 

Sep 07, 2022

Double trouble? Inflation means less cash and more debt for companies

Despite exceeding 2019 levels by 30% in Europe and 50% in the US as of Q2 2022, cash buffers are decreasing as most firms in both the US and Europe have been burning cash in 2022. Countries, sectors and firms now face different challenges. The energy crisis could be a major blow in Europe for energy-intensive sectors (Power, Paper, Metals, Railways, Chemicals etc.) while the strong dollar could harm exporting sectors in the US. 

Sep 01, 2022

Averting 'Gasmageddon' and securing a just transition

The gas crisis threatens to morph into “Gasmageddon”: Energy poverty is an old scourge in the EU, even before today’s energy crisis began. The situation has worsened significantly this year as the invasion of Ukraine has caused gas prices to explode to levels not seen in well over a decade. A dual-pricing scheme could address the shortcomings of the counter-measures implemented so far.

604 releases in total