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Nov 09, 2022

US midterms: Republicans are back, (fiscal) policy impasses too

With the Republican party now in control of the House of Representatives (results for the Senate to follow), no major economic and fiscal legislation will be pushed through in the next two years. 

Nov 04, 2022

EU fiscal rules – quo vadis?

Next week, the European Commission is expected to propose the most ambitious overhaul of the EU fiscal framework in more than two decades. Given the rapid rise in debt ratios during the pandemic and the current energy crises, the application of the current rules, which are currently suspended, would require unrealistically large – and counterproductive – fiscal adjustments by some high-debt countries.  

Nov 03, 2022

Picking up contagion in equity and commodity markets

In an uncertain world, it is essential to diversify investment portfolios. But this is not always easy. When more and more risky-asset markets are rising simultaneously it often is a sign that the risk of a broad-based collapse in asset values is building up. 

Oct 28, 2022

Brazilian elections: The calm before the storm?

Unlike in previous elections, there are few signs of politically driven stress on Brazilian markets. Yet, Brazilian markets are in for a reality check in 2023. The results of the first round of the Presidential elections have reduced the likelihood of extreme policies: markets are familiar with both candidates. 

Oct 27, 2022

Energy crisis, interest rates shock and untampered recession could trigger a wave of bankruptcies

Half of the countries we analyze have recorded double-digit increases in business insolvencies in the first half of 2022. European SMEs (the UK, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and Switzerland) explain two-thirds of the rise.

Oct 21, 2022

Market Volatility and Corporate Bonds: Collateral Damage

Over the last few months, more aggressive monetary tightening, especially in the US, has led a steep sell-off in public debt markets, resulting in unprecedented interest rate volatility. Can deteriorating market liquidity cause more damage to valuations?

Oct 20, 2022

Can the booming battery sector help Europe with its energy crisis?

Energy storage could help Europe tackle its energy crisis but is overlooked in policies, by 2030 total storage capacity will amount to about 35% of annual average Russian gas imports.

Oct 14, 2022

‘Whatever it takes’ reloaded

We estimate that current (median) fiscal support amounts to about 3% of GDP in Europe (more than EUR475bn, on top of the EUR170bn pre-conflict). Unsurprisingly, the fiscal response is somewhat higher in countries with a larger energy-intensive industry and/or greater gas dependence. 

 

Oct 12, 2022

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2022: The last hurrah

In retrospective, 2021 might have been the last year of the old “new normal”, with bullish stock markets powered by monetary policy. Households benefitted handsomely: For a third year in a row, global financial assets grew by double-digits in 2021, reaching EUR 233trn (+10.4%).

 

 

Oct 05, 2022

Globalization 2.0: Can the US and EU really “friendshore” away from China?

Globalization is changing, not dying, but recent crises have raised questions about the structure of global supply chains, and the exposure to geopolitically non-aligned suppliers. 

604 releases in total