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Lights, camera, action: Navigating the economic landscape
Weiterführende Links
As we unveil the latest Economic Outlook Report from Allianz Research, it's clear that navigating the global economy is akin to following a blockbuster movie plot: full of twists, challenges, and moments of anticipation. What we will see is a nuanced storyline for the global economic landscape in the coming years.
Global growth: Setting the scene
The script for global growth forecasts a modest +2.7% expansion for 2024-25, which is down slightly from +2.8% in 2023. The outlook reveals a stable performance in advanced economies, with a growth rate holding at +1.6% in 2024, but a slight slowdown to +4% for emerging markets, primarily driven by dynamics in Asia (excluding the Association of South East Asian Nations) and Latin America. A notable subplot is the narrowing performance gap between the U.S. and Europe, hinting at a convergence in their economic narratives from the second half of 2024 onwards.
Trade recovery: A slow motion sequence
The global trade narrative is exiting its recessionary phase, with a forecasted rise in global trade in goods and services of +3.0% in volume terms for 2024 and a slight uptick to +3.1% in 2025. However, an overstocked inventory scene limits this recovery, acting as a drag on both corporate investments and trade flows. Amidst this, geopolitical tensions loom as potential plot twists, adding layers of complexity to the recovery's pace.
The central banks’ pivot
In a much-anticipated twist, central banks are set to pivot in mid-2024, shifting toward easing monetary policies. The Federal Reserve (Fed) eyes a total of 100bps in rate cuts by the end of 2024, with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to initiate cuts even earlier. This shift serves as a critical turning point, potentially alleviating some economic pressures while also influencing currency dynamics, especially the euro's performance against the dollar.
Market dynamics: Anticipating the next sequel
Investors, like captivated audiences in a movie theater, are navigating a complex plot. With expectations of a policy pivot by the second half of 2024, the fixed income and equity markets are set against a backdrop influenced by reflation, geopolitical tensions, and advancements in technology. Despite a cautious optimism, the narrative remains tense, with long-term interest rates anticipated to decline modestly, constrained by supply-side factors and higher terminal rates.
Corporate landscape: Plot complications
Corporates find themselves in a subplot filled with challenges as they confront a waning pricing power amidst slowing consumer demand. The narrative forecasts a +9% rise in global business insolvencies for 2024, presenting a daunting obstacle for businesses, especially those in highly leveraged sectors. Yet, there's a glimmer of hope, as lower interest rates ahead suggest that the corporate debt-repayment scenario might be less dire than feared.
Inflation: A recurring antagonist
Inflation, much like a persistent antagonist in our story, continues to challenge economies, particularly through services prices. However, the plot may see a twist as disinflationary trends emerge, promising some relief by mid-2024.
Closing scene: A forward look
As our economic plot unfolds, it's clear that the path forward is both challenging and filled with potential. Central banks' policy pivots, trade recovery, and corporate adaptation are key themes that will shape the economic storyline. While uncertainty remains, understanding the main themes can provide clarity and insight into what the future might hold.
For a deeper dive, you can download the entire report here.
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* Einschließlich nicht konsolidierter Einheiten mit Allianz Kunden.
** Stand: 31. Dezember 2023
** Stand: 31. Dezember 2023
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