According to our calculations, the latter goal is largely achievable, matching the pace of distribution observed in the US during the last week. In the last seven days, the US has indeed reached a vaccination rate of about 1 million per day (0.3% per day). The path to herd immunity in Q3 2021 is thus well underway in the US.

When it comes to Bidenomics, we believe a softer stimulus (USD 1.2 trillion) is more likely to pass the Congress hurdle. In this central scenario (60% probability), President Biden is likely to secure sufficient support for most of the plan, including stimulus checks of USD1,400, but would have to compromise on the extent of local and state support.

Growth would reach +4.1% y/y in 2021 and +3.4% y/y in 2022, against +3.6% y/y and +3.1% y/y, respectively, in our current scenario

We remain convinced that the potential of growth of the US economy will be negatively impacted over the medium-term, declining from 2% y/y in 2020 to 1.4% y/y at the horizon of 2030, whatever the size of the stimulus to be eventually voted by the Congress, mainly because of an excessive accumulation of public debt (expected above 160% of GDP at the horizon of 2030)

We calculated that doubling the minimum wage, that we consider as not being achievable in the very short-term, could lead to average inflation of 4% y/y between 2021 and 2026