Climbing the wall of worries

Some larger economies slipped into recession earlier this year amid a difficult global economic outlook, with GDP growth averaging at only +2.5% and +2.3% in 2023-24, respectively.

 

Automotive industry unplugged?

New car registrations in Europe are accelerating but remain in the slow lane as the market consolidates.

Biodiversity loss part II: portfolio impacts and abatement measures

Portfolios most exposed to equities and the agriculture and food services sectors feel the pinch of biodiversity loss. The results of our pilot study on pollination-service loss (PSL) allow for quantitative estimates of financial institutions’ portfolio exposure to biodiversity-related risk.

Past the peak – European corporate margins down again?

Eurozone corporate profit margins reached 40.8% of gross value-added at end-2022 (+0.6pp above the long-term average). But the devil is in the details.

The right to work versus the right to retire

Ageism is still pushing older workers out of the labor market: In the EU only 51% of the population aged between 60 to 64 is still active on the labor market. The main causes are difficulties to find an adequate job and long-term unemployment in higher ages since negative stereotypes about older workers persist.

Sector vulnerability to rising financing costs

With a debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.8x on average, US firms are more leveraged than European ones (3.3x). But Europe has a higher proportion of total debt maturing in one year (20% vs 14% for the US).

Allianz Trade Global Survey 2023: Testing resilience

  • In our 2023 Allianz Trade Global Survey, we decided to check the pulse of companies in seven countries – the US, the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Over three weeks to mid-April, we surveyed a sample of high-level executives in around 3,000 companies that have export activities and suppliers and production sites located in foreign countries. 

Earnings recession to catch up with corporates

All that glitters is not gold in the Q1 earnings season, with US earnings already in recession.

European commercial real estate – selectivity matters!

The commercial real estate sector is getting squeezed by tightening financing conditions but prime assets have remained resilient. After attracting considerable investment in the era of low interest rates, the sector is now battling a storm of cyclical headwinds.