Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Exiting the lockdowns: a tale of four stories

As more countries announce future end dates for lockdowns (France, the UK, Germany), already start curbing them (China, Austria and now Italy and Spain) all of them are outlining their plans to gradually restart activity. Yet one should keep in mind that not all countries are in the same boat; each faces different risks on the eve of deconfining.   

Oil: The floods

We expect significant volatility around our central Brent crude price forecast of USD 41/bbl as an unprecedented inventory build battles with a hope-driven news flow.

Covid-19 to increase U.S. delinquency rate to 6.5% and insolvencies by 25%

High frequency data and the news flow from the U.S. allowed us to have a better sense of the size of the Covid-19 shock, the reaction of public authorities and upcoming ripple effects. In this context, we revise our U.S. GDP growth scenario from +0.5% y/y to -2.7% y/y in 2020.