Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

AI capex cycle: war-proof for now

AI hype deflates amid the capex-monetization debate. Despite strong recent earnings, investor focus has shifted from profitability boost to revenue growth trajectory and cash-flow visibility, particularly given hyperscalers’ elevated capex plans (≈USD575bn, +50% expected in 2026) and weakening sentiment toward software amid risks of AI-driven revenue dilution. 

Signal without response: Why the EU ETS needs resolve, not redesign

The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) is at a political and structural inflection point, with allowance prices falling sharply by around -24% in the first two months of 2026. 

Not all Emerging markets are equal: Hormuz, triple deficits, and the new energy risk premium

A 4-6-week disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push average EM inflation higher by +0.8-1.0p with limited recessionary effects – apart from GCC countries.