Allianz Research

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2024:
Surprising relief

Europe should unlock excess savings from Covid-19 response

We estimate that in Europe, household saving rates could increase by as much as +20pp to 36% on average in Q2 2020. This means EUR1.3tn of additional savings, or 10% of GDP. Total savings could peak at EUR2.3tn.

China: In search of lost demand

China’s GDP growth collapsed to -6.8% y/y in Q1 2020, down from +6.0% in the previous quarter. This is the first contraction since quarterly GDP started to be published, in 1992 and worse than consensus expectations (-6.0%), though better than our forecast (-9.0%).  

Fed bazooka: A long shot

In the six weeks to April 15th, the Fed’s balance sheet has increased by an eye-catching USD 2.1 trillion to USD 6.3 trillion. However, there is still little evidence that this massive injection of liquidity into the financial system has managed to reach the real economy.