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Oct 06, 2020

30 million unemployed go missing

An unprecedented rise in the inactive population since February has seen more than 30 million workers going missing from official unemployment statistics across selected OECD and Emerging Market economies. Because of this” hidden unemployment,” the true monthly hit to household consumption could be underestimated by USD14bn. 

 

 

Oct 02, 2020

U.S. & Eurozone corporates: Where is the Fed?

Central banks, allegedly in the front line? As the pandemic brought large swathes of the global economy to a standstill, both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank started loading their respective policy bazookas. Both central banks’ decisions triggered an extreme market rotation into corporate credit (especially in the high yielding segment). Taking into account that the U.S. corporate credit market is ~2.5x that of the Eurozone, as of today the ECB has intervened with the double firepower compared to the Fed.

 


 

Oct 01, 2020

Inflation: Back to the 1970s?

The immediate impact of the Covid-19 shock on inflation has been decidedly deflationary, but in light of the brewing cocktail of post-pandemic economic trends, the probability of an inflationary overshoot has also risen. What would it take for a scenario of persistently high inflation (probability: 15%) to materialize?

Sep 29, 2020

U.S. elections - We have a winner: Debt

The U.S. elections will spark a period of high uncertainty and market volatility until the end of the year. It could take one to two months after 03 November to finalize the results due to the record high use of mail-in ballots amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sep 24, 2020

Living on with a Covid-19 hum

Stop-and-go containment measures confirm a return to normal in 2022. After strong post-lockdown catch-up effects, we expect the recovery to slow in Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 as distancing measures tighten again and ongoing job shedding keeps spend-ing and investment in check.

 

Sep 23, 2020

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2020

Never in the last ten years were we able to report such a big increase in wealth: Worldwide, gross financial assets[1] grew by 9.7% in 2019, clocking the strongest growth since 2005.

Sep 22, 2020

Eurodollar: Lost in translation?

 

After its peak on 20 March 2020, the USD has depreciated 10% against the EUR (1.174 as of 21 September 2020), going back to levels last seen in mid-2018. This rapid depreciation has raised many questions about the future of the dollar. 

 

Sep 18, 2020

The big compression: The erosion of duration risk

In response to the Covid-19 crisis, the debt-to-GDP ratio in advanced economies will rise to an all-time high of 130% of GDP this year. At the same time, long-term interest rates are at an all-time low. 

 

Sep 18, 2020

Stimulus packages: German 'Wumms' vs. French 'Relance' - who does it better?

To boost growth after the Covid-19 fallout, Germany and France have introduced large stimulus packages which in terms of magnitude are playing in the same league. Digging below the surface however unveils deeply diverging approaches to boost the recovery.

 

 

Sep 17, 2020

Average inflation targeting: The US Fed buys two years of respite

At its meeting on 16 September, the last before the election, the U.S. Federal Reserve confirmed our expectations that it will keep rates at 0% into 2023, and let inflation run higher than 2% for an extended period. 

 

604 releases in total